Drafting top World Series contenders after Trade Deadline

With the 2024 Trade Deadline in the past, there’s only one thing left to do: Win the whole darn thing.

But who will it be? MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and Will Leitch pondered that question and drafted the remaining contenders, looking at the state of each roster after all the Deadline deals were done. As usual, we won’t go through all 30 teams here, just the 18 clubs who had postseason odds of at least 10% at FanGraphs as of Friday.

I, Mike, have to pat myself on the back at least a little here -- when we did this one year ago, it appears I picked the Texas Rangers second overall, months before they made a somewhat unexpected run to a title that was, in retrospect, perhaps at least a little expected. In return for that brief moment of self-congratulation, Will gets to go first. Will?

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Leitch: After their mini-sweep at the hands of the Padres last week gave everybody in San Diego (and Phoenix, for that matter) a little bit of hope that the NL West may not be entirely settled, this might seem like a strange time to pick the Dodgers first in a "Win the World Series" draft. But there really hasn’t been a great time to pick the Dodgers this year. The would-be superteam has been absolutely wrecked with injuries from the get-go this year, and not just little injuries. There have been superstar injuries, from Mookie Betts to Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Clayton Kershaw to Tyler Glasnow. The Dodgers also have employed a surprisingly top-heavy lineup most of the year and a rotation that has been constantly in flux.

And yet, they’re still here in first place and, thanks to exactly the sort of smart moves you expect from them at the Deadline, loading up for the stretch run. Look at all the guys who will be back this month or shortly thereafter: Betts. Max Muncy. Walker Buehler. Brusdar Graterol. Tommy Edman. Yamamoto (probably). Add them to the new guys, as well as a team that, oh yeah, already was fighting for the best record in the National League. (Oh yeah, L.A. also has Shohei Ohtani, who is on his way to winning his third MVP Award with, almost literally, one arm tied behind his back.) This is a team that is built to win a World Series, by definition. They’ll be better in October than they are right now, and they’re excellent right now. I know people are excited about the Phillies, and an NLCS between these two would have me salivating. But the problems of June and July won’t be the problems of October. I think they have to be the pick.

2. Philadelphia Phillies
Petriello: The Phillies just got swept by the Yankees, and I do not care; rings are won in October, not in a single midsummer series. The Phillies went 10-14 in July and … well, yes, I care about that a little. It’s not what you want, and yet it all just feels so flukish, about going through a dreadful RISP slump -- which is just about never predictive -- and about Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto hitting what seems like a midseason wall after recovering from leg injuries.

The Phillies don’t have any major injury concerns, with Ranger Suárez expected back shortly. They reinforced their bullpen with Carlos Estévez, one of the best relievers moved, and Tanner Banks, who should shut down lefties. They still have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler atop the rotation; they still have Trea Turner, who just homered 10 times in July. Show me the team that hasn’t dealt with a slump over a six-month season, and I’ll show you the team that wins 110 games.

Of course, the obvious and funniest outcome is the one where they win the NL East … and then promptly lose to the Braves, reversing the outcomes of the past two seasons. Funniest to me, anyway.

3. Baltimore Orioles
Leitch: I know Orioles fans were frustrated with how their ALDS went last year, when the Rangers swept them en route to winning the World Series. They had waited a long time for a playoff series, the result of years in the wilderness and rather impressive fan patience, and that’s what they got? But I feel obliged to point out the following Orioles who played in that series: Adam Frazier. Kyle Gibson. DL Hall. Austin Hays. Aaron Hicks. Am I crazy, or are the Orioles considerably better at every single position those guys occupied last year? This is to say, for all the talk that the Orioles are still just getting started on their presumed series of runs at a World Series over the next decade, it should be noted that they’re already a lot better than they were last year -- and they were pretty good last year.

We’re still looking at a rotation of Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and guy-who-was-unhittable-in-the-World-Series-just-two-years-ago Zach Eflin supporting an offense that has an MVP candidate in Gunnar Henderson surrounded by quality hitters numbers one through nine. That includes this Jackson Holliday kid, who may just soon start mashing opposing pitchers the way we expected him to all year. The Orioles had a rough month or so, but they remain absolutely stacked. They’re better than last year. They will be better in October than they are right now. I think they’re making the World Series.

4. New York Yankees
Petriello: For two months, the Yankees looked like the best team ever. Then, for the next two months, they looked like the 35th-best team in a 30-team league. (No, for real, there was a six-week stretch when their rotation was worse than any team that doesn’t play their games a mile high.) Now, thanks in part to the jolt of life provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr., the Yankees are hot, and the Orioles are trying their best to not win the East, and everything is fine. Right? Not … quite.

On one hand, the lineup that Luis Severino humorously (and accurately!) jabbed as having “only two good hitters” looks a lot deeper now that Chisholm is there, Giancarlo Stanton is back, Austin Wells looks like a star-in-the-making and Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe are showing signs of life. On the other hand, they never did get the fire-breathing reliever they needed -- all due respect to Mark Leiter Jr. -- and is there anyone from the pool of Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman or Nestor Cortes you feel comfortable starting a Game 2, much less a Game 1? Obviously, Gerrit Cole could and should be that guy, but we still don’t know exactly what he’s going to be as he works his way back into form.

Anyway, the playoffs are two months away. That’s at least three more hot and cold streaks for this club. They just have to try to time it right.

5. Houston Astros
Leitch: Yeah, everybody should have buried them in the standings when they had the chance. That faceplant of a start -- this team was 12 games under .500 on May 8 and 10 games out of first on June 18 -- hasn’t so much as been erased as it has been subsumed by the problems of the Mariners and Rangers. All that slack the division has given them has allowed them to be right back where we expect them to be: In prime position to sneak into an eighth straight (!!!) ALCS appearance.

The rotation has been ravaged by injuries, but it’s now as stable as it has been all year as they await the semi-pending returns of Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia. And now that Alex Bregman has pulled himself out of the abyss he was in for the season’s first two months, the lineup looks reliably Astros-esque: It’s a little thin toward the bottom, but as terrifying as ever at the top. This is not one of the best Astros teams of this last decade, not even close. But they’re still the best team in this division and, no question, the team no one wants to face before the ALCS. I mean, eight in a row! I can’t pass that up.

6. Minnesota Twins
Petriello: Come at me, Guardians fans. But first, let me explain.

The Twins got off a pretty lousy start, losing 13 of their first 20. But since April 21 -- or more than three months ago -- they’ve gone back and forth with Baltimore for the best record in baseball. I can’t get past the Guardians' rotation being this ineffective (29th in WAR), and since June 1, the Twins' offense has outscored Cleveland by 63 runs, but honestly, it’s not about the race for the AL Central, which Cleveland probably has enough of an edge to hang onto. It’s about winning the World Series, right? Despite a disappointingly quiet Deadline, Minnesota holds an AL Wild Card spot and is projected to have top-5 team production the rest of the way -- as befits a group that’s been winning for three months.

I’m not that worried about what anyone’s April records were. Give me Royce Lewis in the playoffs, please. No, really; please. Let him be healthy, baseball gods.

7. Cleveland Guardians
Leitch: I’m sure Guardians fans will be annoyed to see their team this low; they do have the best record in the American League, after all. (And for what it’s worth, I probably would have taken them above the Twins there, yes.) But I understand the skepticism. The rotation has been passable but hardly the sort of obvious advantage we have come to expect from Cleveland in October. And while they are hitting more homers this year, they’re still not that powerful of a team. As we’ve learned over and over, the best way to win in the postseason isn’t to bunt guys over -- it’s to hit the ball out of the park. The Guardians will have the same small margin for error that they’ve always had in October, maybe even less of one considering their starting pitching.

I can still see why people would believe, though. José Ramírez has always been a star, but now Steven Kwan, despite the slowdown of late, gives them another one. And how do you not love that bullpen? One of these years, everything is going to fall just right for Cleveland. The vibes so far in 2024 have been immaculate. Maybe this is that year.

8. Milwaukee Brewers
Petriello: I didn’t trust the Brewers that much entering the season -- and I don’t really regret it, not after they traded Burnes and lost Brandon Woodruff and Devin Williams to injury. But despite a July stumble, not only do they have a lead in the NL Central, they hold a 6-1 season lead over the Cardinals, giving them a likely tiebreaker edge should it come to that. I don’t love Christian Yelich going down with another back injury, but also, I think not nearly enough people have noticed that Jackson Chourio has been on fire for two months, slashing .316/.363/.523 since June 1. Did you notice, also, that Williams returned recently throwing 98 mph?

It’s extremely unusual to look at a Brewers team of recent vintage and be somewhat satisfied with the lineup and this concerned about the rotation. But down here at No. 8, I have claimed the last remaining division leader -- and the best way to win the World Series is to, you know, make the playoffs. I’ll take what I can get.

9. Seattle Mariners
Leitch: My longtime theory is that the 2001 D-backs -- who pretty much had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling throw all the postseason innings -- gave baseball fans the false idea that starting pitching was the most important thing you need in October: Just let your studs carry you. It isn’t really like that -- particularly with just two guys the way pitchers are handled today, and have been for a while -- but the illusion persists: If great pitching beats great hitting, well, that’s a formula that it feels like you can count on.

I say all this to note that, all told, there might be no single advantage any (potential) postseason team will have that’s greater than “the Mariners’ rotation against whichever rotation they face.” (Unless there’s a Mariners-Pirates World Series, and wouldn’t that be something?) The Mariners’ rotation is the only reason they’re not underwater at this point, and I’m sweating just thinking of having to go against a trio of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and George Kirby in a short series. The question, of course, is whether they will be able to score enough, or even at all. (They batted Jorge Polanco fourth last week. Fourth!) When Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford return, they’ll find Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner waiting for them, which may be just enough to make this lineup passable. It still may require those starters being dominant every single game they pitch. That’s unlikely to happen, but it could -- and that’s not something you can say for nearly anybody else.

10. San Diego Padres
Petriello: You know, the Padres still have a slim chance to take the West over the teetering Dodgers, and wouldn’t that be entertaining? After a 12-15 April, the Padres went 44-33, and then, as you may have heard, “won the Trade Deadline” with bullpen additions. I’m not sure I’d go that far, because I don’t entirely trust Tanner Scott, but I absolutely trust Dylan Cease as an elite ace -- and we’re far enough into the season now that I have to start taking Jurickson Profar seriously, don’t I? Have you noticed that Michael King has a 2.27 ERA in his last 11 starts? It’s enough to make me forget that the possibly-not-healthy Luis Arraez hasn’t really hit in two months.

We have to remember in the expanded postseason world that winning the division is a nice-to-have, not a must-have, and the formula I look for is: A) One or two top-level starters [check]; B) a shutdown bullpen [check]; C) enough bats to make some noise [check-check]; and D) some kind of "Good Vibes," and while I would accept “playoff knuckleballer” here, winning one for Peter Seidler would certainly be some kind of tribute. Check-check-check.

11. Atlanta Braves
Leitch: This Braves team unquestionably looks weaker than each of the previous seven, which all made the postseason. It’s not just the injuries, though it’s primarily the injuries. I don’t care how deep and well constructed you are, no one could survive the slough of losing Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider (and Ozzie Albies and Max Fried and Michael Harris II and … ). But there are guys having down years, too: Matt Olson, Sean Murphy (who also has been injured), even Charlie Morton. The Braves have been carried by Marcell Ozuna, Reynaldo López, Chris Sale and their bullpen -- they’re the only reason this team hasn’t completely bottomed out.

The second-worst team of this seven-year run was, of course, the 2021 team -- the one that won the World Series. That’s the one Braves fans are dreaming about, as is the front office, which has brought back Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario and Luke Jackson to try to recapture that magic. I don’t think it’s going to work, but I didn’t think it was going to work in 2021 either. It would be truly amazing if the Braves’ two World Series wins in this stretch were the years that Acuña was lost for the season. (It would also be sort of cruel. Not that Braves fans would mind.)

12. Pittsburgh Pirates
Petriello: Yeah, I know. Adding only Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Bryan De La Cruz to a moribund offense “ain’t it,” as the kids might have once said. I don’t think this team has the hitting to get it done. I remain mystified that Ke’Bryan Hayes not only did not have the step forward we were hoping for, but he appears to have taken so much of a step back that even his all-world glove might not keep his bat in the lineup beyond this year.

But look, here at No. 12, I -- the informed-yet-objective baseball observer -- has but one goal in mind, and that goal is this: We need Paul Skenes in the playoffs, and we need Andrew McCutchen in the playoffs, and we really need Paul Skenes and Andrew McCutchen in the playoffs together. I’m not blind to the already annoying “but what about his innings limit” conversations we’ll have to have about Skenes should the Pirates get there, but a rotation of Skenes/Mitch Keller/Jared Jones (when he returns, which he should soon)/Luis L. Ortiz is the stuff of which dreams are made.

I think they’re less likely than some of the teams below to make the playoffs, but perhaps more likely than some of the others to make some noise if they do get there. (I definitely should have picked the Royals here.)

13. Kansas City Royals
Leitch: Bobby Witt Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. Wait, you’re going to require me to write more words? Witt had a July for the ages, putting up the sort of superhuman, you’ve-set-the-difficulty-too-easy-on-Road-to-the-Show numbers that might just get him an MVP Award, particularly if Kansas City ends up making the playoffs. (Oh, and Aaron Judge might have to miss some time, too.) The Royals are coming off a 106-loss season, which makes what they’re doing this year a massive victory no matter what happens, but they haven’t really let up. This team has some staying power.

You do wonder if that rotation can keep putting up all those innings, and while they were aggressive in boosting their bullpen, that was still going to be a tough hole to plug. And outside of Witt, Salvador Perez and your guy Vinnie Pasquantino, there are a lot of outs in this lineup. Maybe Witt can carry them through multiple series? Though if he keeps going like he did in July, he’s going to start getting the Barry Bonds treatment.

14. Boston Red Sox
Petriello: Talk about good value here at No. 14, even if the two sides of the team are moving in completely opposite directions. (While the offense has heated up, the pitching has absolutely collapsed. The infield defense has remained reliably poor most of the season.) The pitching problems might get even worse, as Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford blow past any previous levels of usage, but if Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu keep hitting like this, maybe it won’t matter.

The Sox didn’t do a whole lot at the Deadline, adding catcher Danny Jansen and some pitching around the edges. But they didn’t sell off the pending free agents either. I have a hard time seeing the staff being able to carry a true playoff run, but the way this team plays -- fast, exciting, hair-on-fire in all ways (good and bad) -- would make for a wonderfully entertaining October watch.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Leitch: They’ve been claiming to anyone who will listen, really since the offseason, that they’re better than the team that went to the World Series last year. But, positive run differential aside, no one really believed them … until July, when they put up the best record in baseball and looked better than they have in a decade. Having Corbin Carroll ever so slowly start to approach his Rookie of the Year form has emphasized how deep this lineup is, even with Christian Walker’s injury: The only guy with an OPS+ under 100 in their lineup is, uh, Carroll. They can score runs.

I’m not sure the pitching is going to hold up, though. Zac Gallen has been down a little, but is still a legit No. 1 starter, and Brandon Pfaadt has held up all right, though he’s already at 30 more innings than he threw last year. But are A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro significant enough additions to make that big of a difference? I am not sure they are. The D-backs will have to bash their way to the World Series. It could happen. But I wouldn’t count on it.

16. New York Mets
Petriello: Which vibe season are we on with the Mets? Grimace seems so long ago. “OMG” seems to have faded with Jose Iglesias’ bat. There at least have been good vibes, I guess is the point, and now that we’re past the Trade Deadline, we’re also past the daily will-they-or-won’t-they about Pete Alonso’s bat.

So what are we left with? The long-awaited return of Kodai Senga lasted exactly one start before a season-ending calf injury, and Paul Blackburn just adds another back-end innings-eater to a rotation that’s pretty much full of back-end innings eaters; there’s not really anyone here you feel great about starting the first game or two of a playoff series. But the defense is massively improved and the offense has been among baseball’s most dangerous for months now. You know how well things are going at the plate, Will? Even Jeff McNeil is pounding homers now.

There’s just not enough pitching here to make it work in October, but this was never the season that David Stearns was targeting to be all-in either. The Mets have learned a lot about who can be part of their next great team, which no longer seems like it has to be that far away.

17. St. Louis Cardinals
Leitch: At a minimal cost, the Cardinals got potentially the best starting pitcher at the Deadline in Erick Fedde and the right-handed bat that they desperately needed in Tommy Pham, who has been embraced by St. Louis fans the way he never was (but should have been) a decade ago. It was a bit of a magic act.

The Cardinals probably needed to pull off four or five more, though. They’ve had some nice breakthroughs from young players, from Alec Burleson to Michael Siani to Pedro Pages to Rookie of the Year hipster pick Masyn Winn. But the problem isn’t with the young players. It’s the old guys. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are shells of their former selves, and the rotation full of 30-somethings is starting, inevitably, to fade down the stretch. The Cardinals are in a period of transition right now, and they’re doing it while still trying to compete. That’s admirable. And with Pham around, the vibes are currently smooth. But there are a lot of holes here. Too many.

18. San Francisco Giants
Petriello: Will insisted I mention “Hayden Birdsong from Mattoon, Ill.,” a combination of player and town I refuse to believe is real, even though I actually have family connections to Mattoon for non-Will reasons.

The Giants have been just the beigest kind of vanilla ever since that magical 2021 season, posting a 214-220 record across the past three seasons entering Friday. They’ve never been good, they’ve rarely been bad -- they’ve always just sort of been there. Which, for the most part, is still true after an uninspiring Trade Deadline, though it’s worth noting that they were always going to look different in the second half once their pitching got healthy. While we can’t entirely agree with Farhan Zaidi’s claim of “the best rotation in baseball,” we at least get his point: Blake Snell looks great again, Robbie Ray is back, Logan Webb is Logan Webb and even Birdsong looks like a keeper.

They’re probably not going to make the playoffs. But if they do, I’ll ride that rotation over plenty of others here.