Can these 8 players keep it up after big first halves?

The first half of the 2024 MLB season featured countless great stories. There’s the reliever-turned-starter who joined a new club and has been better than ever. There’s the formerly defense-first center fielder who went from one of the Majors’ worst hitters to a legitimate threat at the plate. There’s the former No. 1 prospect having a career year that earned him an All-Star start.

All those storylines -- and more -- are fun. But will they stand the test of time? Not every player can sustain their production from one half of the season to the other, and many standout first halves will end up forgotten by the time things are said and done. (That could hold true even though the 2024 “first half” was actually well over half the regular season, with teams playing roughly 60% of their games.)

Here are eight players who put together dominant first halves -- and a look at whether they can expect the same success after the All-Star break.

Reynaldo López, SP, Braves
In his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, López has proved himself an excellent offseason addition for the Braves. The right-hander leads all qualified pitchers in ERA (1.88) and has an above-average 24.6% strikeout rate. One of MLB’s best starters during the season’s first half, López has bolstered a Braves rotation that lost ace Spencer Strider to elbow surgery in April.

Very few pitchers can sustain an ERA as low as López’s has been, but how far might he fall? Based on his Statcast-projected 4.26 expected ERA, López has been the third-luckiest pitcher in the Majors when accounting for quality-of-contact data, walks and strikeouts. It also remains to be seen if López can hold up under an increased workload -- he’s already thrown 95 2/3 innings, almost 30 more than he’s thrown in any season since 2019.

Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians
Kwan has always hit for a high average, but he’s taken things to a new level this year. Not only has Kwan’s average soared from .282 entering 2024 to a Major League-leading .352 this season, but the Guardians outfielder has hit nine homers with a .512 slugging percentage and .920 OPS. Kwan missed roughly four weeks with a hamstring strain, but he played so well when he was on the field that he drew the start in left field and the leadoff assignment for the American League All-Star team.

Will Kwan stay above the .350 mark? That’s probably unlikely, although he might not finish too far off. Kwan’s .312 expected batting average is tied for fourth in MLB, and he’s in elite company in several other Statcast metrics, too. While it’s part of his skill set rather than an indicator of any flaw in his game, Kwan doesn’t hit the ball hard or barrel it up often. For those reasons, his power numbers should drop a bit: Kwan’s expected slugging percentage is .414, nearly 100 points below his actual mark.

Seth Lugo, SP, Royals
Lugo has proven to be much more than just a veteran stabilizer for the Royals’ rotation after signing a two-year deal with a player option in the offseason. His 2.48 ERA in the first half ranked third in the AL, behind only Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (2.41) and AL All-Star starter Corbin Burnes (2.43). Lugo has also thrown 127 innings, the second most of any AL pitcher. He’s pitched five or more innings in all 20 starts and has completed at least six innings 17 times.

In 2023, Lugo -- in his first full season as a starter since 2017 with the Mets -- put up a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres. The Royals would certainly take that in a starting rotation also featuring Cole Ragans and Brady Singer even if it means some regression for Lugo. Nothing really jumps out about the veteran right-hander’s Statcast page, but Lugo’s rare nine-pitch mix has been fooling hitters all year.

Brenton Doyle, OF, Rockies
Doyle has made an impressive leap from 2023 to 2024 on the offensive side of things. Last season, he was the worst qualified hitter in all of MLB according to expected wOBA, which accounts for quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. Doyle made a living with his elite speed and defense, but this year, he’s made major strides with the bat.

Doyle’s .343 xwOBA in 2024 ranks in the 73rd percentile of MLB, in the company of stars like Dodgers catcher Will Smith (.343) and Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez (.341). The Rockies center fielder is one of four players with at least 15 home runs and at least 20 steals in 2024 -- the others are Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz. Taking an .815 OPS into the All-Star break, Doyle seems to have made lasting changes for the better where he most needed to.

Ronel Blanco, SP, Astros
Who could have foreseen the Astros’ best starter in 2024 -- in a rotation featuring Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez -- being Blanco? That has in fact been the case, as the third-year right-hander threw a no-hitter in his first start of the season and made a couple other no-hit bids as well. Blanco finished the first half with a 2.56 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 18 starts, emerging from relative obscurity to become one of the AL’s best starters so far in 2024.

Blanco has held opposing hitters to a .179 batting average or lower on all four of his pitches, so he’s been hard to solve this season. Above-average chase and whiff rates and a low hard-hit rate have driven Blanco’s success, although he might not continue to dominate to this level. Blanco’s xERA sits at 3.56, and even if he finished the year at that number, Houston would probably be happy with it.

Josh Smith, 3B, Rangers
Smith almost singlehandedly won the Rangers their final game before the All-Star break, smashing a pair of two-run homers in a 4-2 victory over the Astros to secure a series win. It was a grand finale to an excellent first half for Smith, who has posted a .293/.392/.469 slash line in 2024. Smith has been just what the Rangers needed after starting third baseman Josh Jung fractured his wrist in early April.

According to xwOBA, Smith has been MLB’s luckiest hitter so far this season, with his actual production far exceeding his expected numbers. Smith hasn’t hit the ball hard enough to back up his .469 slugging percentage, although his plate discipline has been above average. He’s also been crushing fastballs well (.319 AVG, .524 SLG).

Tanner Houck, SP, Red Sox
The former first-round pick flashed his promise as a rookie in 2021, but Houck was moved to the bullpen the following season. Returning to a starter role last year, the right-hander struggled with a 5.01 ERA in 21 starts. Houck has cut that number in half in 2024, owning a 2.54 ERA -- fourth in the AL. With Chris Sale traded to the Braves, Garrett Whitlock out for the season and Brayan Bello struggling, Houck has become the ace of Boston’s staff.

Is his success bound to last? It’s hard to tell -- Houck excels in some advanced metrics, including chase rate (84th percentile in MLB), barrel rate (83rd percentile) and ground-ball rate (92nd percentile). However, his hard-hit rate ranks in the 16th percentile and he doesn’t generate a ton of whiffs. Houck’s 3.71 xERA signals there should be some regression to come, but likely not enough to erase his All-Star first half.

Jurickson Profar, OF, Padres
At age 31, Profar has put together by far the best offensive season of his career. A starting outfielder for the NL All-Star team, the former No. 1 overall prospect has found his stride with the Padres. Profar owns a .305/.394/.476 batting line with 14 homers and 59 RBIs through the All-Star break, adding another big bat to a San Diego roster featuring Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Luis Arraez.

And based on Statcast metrics, including xBA and xwOBA, Profar’s breakout year is for real. That’s largely thanks to his plate discipline: He's only striking out at a 15.0% clip while walking 11.7% of the time, and his chase and whiff rates are well above average. Profar’s stats might take a small step back, but there’s nothing to indicate his production has been totally unsustainable.