HOF ballot update: 8 crucial questions as announcement nears

In 18 days, we’ll find out who the Baseball Writers' Association of America has elected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this summer, receiving the game’s greatest individual honor as legends already enshrined in Cooperstown look on. The announcement will be made live on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET on Jan. 23.

Something the public didn’t have back when the first class was elected in 1936 is a public ballot tracker that gives us a sense of who may eclipse the 75% threshold and get the call to the Hall. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and Co.’s Hall of Fame ballot tracker, we can get a pretty good idea of which players are trending toward election.

Based on how the tracker looks now, several questions arise as we get ever closer to finding out who will comprise the Class of 2024.

Voting percentages are as of Thursday night.

Adrián Beltré appears to be a lock for election -- how close will he be to a unanimous selection?

With 3,166 hits, 477 home runs and five Gold Glove Awards at third base, just to name a few of his credentials, Beltré appears to be on his way to election in his first year on the ballot. The question is: How close will he be to a unanimous choice?

The only candidate to be elected unanimously to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA was Mariano Rivera in 2019 -- his name was checked on all 425 ballots submitted. While we know Beltré won’t be a unanimous selection based on information from the tracker, his name has been checked by 98.3% of the voters who have made their ballots public so far.

Could Beltré finish among the top 10 all-time in Hall of Fame voting percentages? The closest anyone has been without being voted in unanimously is Derek Jeter, who received 99.7% of the vote in 2020. Next on the list is Ken Griffey Jr. who garnered 99.3%. They are followed by Tom Seaver (98.8%), Nolan Ryan (98.8%), Cal Ripken Jr. (98.5%), Ty Cobb (98.2%), George Brett (98.2%), Hank Aaron (97.8%) and Tony Gwynn (97.6%).

Will Joe Mauer be elected on his first ballot?

Somewhat surprisingly given pre-ballot expectations, Mauer is trending exceptionally well on his first ballot. The former Twins catcher/first baseman has received 81.5% of the vote on publicly revealed ballots. Will he finish with the requisite 75% or more of the total vote when all the ballots are accounted for?

Mauer’s credentials are certainly strong -- three batting titles, the 2009 American League MVP Award, six All-Star selections, five Silver Slugger Awards and three Gold Glove Awards behind the plate, not to mention a ranking of seventh among catchers in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system of evaluation for Hall of Fame worthiness.

But while there seems to have been a feeling that Mauer would one day be elected, it was far from a certainty that it would happen in his first year of eligibility. So far, so good on that front -- with nearly a third of the ballots tabulated in the unofficial tracker, it seems Mauer has a real chance to make it to Cooperstown on his first try. And Jason Sardell, whose forecasts have proven to be very close in the past, projects he'll finish around 80%.

Is this the year for Todd Helton and Billy Wagner, or will they have to wait?

These are two candidates who have had some hurdles to clear in order to get as close as they are now -- Helton took a quantum leap to 72.2% of the vote last year, and Wagner reached 68.1%.

Helton, of course, has had his candidacy hurt by playing his home games at Coors Field for 17 seasons. Wagner has tremendous rate stats, but there have been questions over longevity and postseason struggles. Helton is currently tracking at 82.4%, and Wagner is at 79.8%.

Things are more urgent for Wagner, who has one remaining year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot after this year (candidates remain on the ballot for a maximum of 10 years). Helton, meanwhile, is on his sixth ballot.

Typically, ballots that aren’t revealed before the Hall of Fame announcement tend to lower the percentages for candidates like Helton and Wagner, so it seems it could come down to the wire with both. According to Sardell, Wagner may come up well short this year, at around 64%. He also suggests that Helton’s chances at being voted in this year are “basically a coin flip.”

Is there any chance Gary Sheffield gets in on his final ballot?

Sheffield has also been making significant progress, jumping from 13.6% in 2019 to 55% last year. But it may be too little, too late for the slugger who hit 509 home runs with a .907 OPS over a 22-year MLB career.

Despite nine All-Star selections, five Silver Slugger Awards, a batting title and a World Series championship with the Marlins in 1997, Sheffield’s appearance in the Mitchell Report has hurt his candidacy to the point where it would be a stunner if he was elected on his final ballot this year.

So far, Sheffield has received 74.8% of the 119 publicly revealed ballots. That’s an encouraging number, but in past years, the general trend has been for Sheffield’s support among voters whose ballots are revealed after the Hall of Fame announcement to decline.

Sardell’s analysis has him finishing in the mid-60s, which means Sheffield’s Cooperstown chances may be left to a future Era Committee.

How big of an increase in support will Carlos Beltrán see?

Beltrán’s Hall of Fame credentials, on their own, should make him a strong candidate for election to Cooperstown someday. But when he was implicated in the Astros’ sign-stealing operation a few years ago, his candidacy took a hit.

During his 20-year Major League career, Beltrán also played for the Royals, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers. One of five players in AL/NL history with at least 400 home runs (435) and 300 steals (312) in his career, he was the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, a nine-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove Award winner in center field.

Beltrán also has one of the greatest postseason resumes in history -- in 65 career playoff games, the switch-hitting slugger posted a 1.021 OPS with 16 homers and 11 steals. Beltrán’s 2004 postseason was one for the ages. He smashed eight homers with a 1.557 OPS for Houston.

In 2023, his first year of eligibility on the Hall of Fame ballot, Beltrán garnered 46.5% of the vote. That figure was probably suppressed by his involvement in the Astros scandal, but it was a strong start nonetheless. He's currently tracking at 66.4%, and Sardell sees him crossing the 60-percent threshold this time around.

Will Andruw Jones keep climbing toward election?

Jones is one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time -- only Willie Mays (12) won more Gold Glove Awards at the position than Jones’ 10. He was also a prolific offensive player, belting 434 home runs, including an MLB-best 51 for the Braves in 2005.

A prodigy in Atlanta’s farm system, Jones was playing in the postseason in his first year with the Major League club at age 19. In all, he hit 10 career postseason homers, including three in that 1996 campaign, when he became the youngest player to homer in the playoffs (19 years, 177 days).

Despite his many achievements, it took some time for Jones’ Hall of Fame candidacy to gain traction. In 2019, he was at 7.5%, but by ’23, he had reached 58.1%. So far in this, his seventh year on the ballot, Sardell’s model suggests Jones’ support may have plateaued at 58%, at least for now. He’s currently tracking at 67.2% with 31% of the ballots known.

If Jones isn’t elected by the writers even with a late-stage bump in support, it may be due to him falling short in some traditional categories like hits (under 2,000) and batting average (.254).

Will Chase Utley’s first ballot set him up for election in the future?

In another era, Utley’s career numbers might have led to him being at risk of falling off the Hall of Fame ballot entirely in his first year of eligibility (any candidate receiving under 5% of the vote is not eligible on future BBWAA ballots).

But as we’ve seen with Helton, Wagner, Sheffield, Jones and others, the electorate has evolved both in composition and in utilization of advanced metrics to evaluate candidates. Utley is tracking at 42%, and Sardell has him at around 41% when all the ballots are accounted for.

Will that type of support on his first ballot set Utley up for future induction?

Utley was a six-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner at second base over a 16-year MLB career. As far as accolades go, his credentials appear to be lacking. And as far as “black ink” bona fides (instances of leading the league or the Majors in a statistical category), his score is low (Utley led the NL with 131 runs scored in 2006, and led MLB in times hit by a pitch three times).

Nevertheless, Utley was one of the premier second basemen of his era. From 2005-10, he hit .298/.388/.523 with 162 home runs and 90 steals while playing strong defense at the keystone position. Much of his value, in fact, came from his defensive prowess. As a result, he produced 45.5 bWAR over that six-season span, second only to Albert Pujols (52.1) among position players.

It’s hard to say whether Utley will eventually be elected, but you could do a lot worse than picking up 40-45% in your first year on the ballot.

Will David Wright avoid a one-and-done ballot appearance?

Wright became one of the great “what-if” players in recent history due to injuries that cut short his career, including spinal stenosis, which was the career-ender.

Over his first 10 seasons, it seemed Wright was on his way to Cooperstown. He hit .301/.382/.506 with 222 home runs in that span, earning seven All-Star selections, a pair of Gold Glove Awards and three top-10 finishes in NL MVP voting.

But then injuries struck him relentlessly and he was never the same, ultimately having to call it a career at age 35 in 2018, following three seasons in which he was barely on the field.

While it’s unlikely he’ll reach Cooperstown, Wright does have a comp in the Hall of Fame already -- Twins great Kirby Puckett. Both had their careers cut short by injury, with Puckett playing in 198 more games than Wright. Puckett’s career bWAR was 51.2, and Wright’s was 49.2. Puckett hit 207 homers with a career 124 OPS+. Wright hit 242 homers with a career 133 OPS+.

In the end, though, Wright will be fighting just to stay on the ballot in his first year. So far, he’s gotten 5.9% of the vote, with Sardell’s projection placing him around 7%. If Wright can manage to eke by this time, he’ll at least have a chance to have his case further examined in the years ahead.