4 takeaways from General Managers Meetings as trade buzz percolates
This browser does not support the video element.
SAN ANTONIO – The annual General Managers Meetings have come and gone, as executives from all 30 clubs departed the JW Marriott on Thursday, returning home to begin digging into their offseason plans.
There was a little news from Texas this week – Gerrit Cole rescinded his opt-out to remain with the Yankees, 13 qualifying offers were extended, the Angels added Kyle Hendricks, and it was revealed that Shohei Ohtani underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum he suffered during the World Series – but there was plenty of buzz about the offseason’s biggest names during the course of the week.
Here are four takeaways from this week’s GM meetings:
The trade market will be active
Although the free-agent market features a top-heavy class filled with players expected to command nine-figure contracts, the fact is that not every club will be able to shell out those kinds of dollars to improve their rosters.
Can’t afford Corbin Burnes? Perhaps Garrett Crochet can be had for the right pieces. Is Pete Alonso too expensive for your first base vacancy? Maybe Yandy Díaz or Josh Naylor are viable – and attainable – alternatives.
“I think there's going to be a lot of effort to make trades as opposed to counting on the free-agent market,” one American League executive said. “At least initially, teams seem more willing to talk about names that they weren’t willing to talk about in the past, so I think that's encouraging.”
Players with one or two years remaining until free agency are often prime trade candidates, especially as their salaries continue to rise in the arbitration process. An AL executive wondered whether clubs will be more willing to part with controllable Major League players – even those who haven’t yet reached arbitration – in an effort to secure impact players without having to dip into the free-agent market.
“If the supply is not in free agency, you have target teams,” the AL exec said. “What will be more interesting in the trade market is if the guys that are in years 4-6 are being traded or if teams are willing to trade guys in years 2-4; that would be more indicative of how many trades are made. The hardest part of that is, who do you match up with? Whoever somebody might be willing to trade might not match up with what the other team has that you want.”
This browser does not support the video element.
Another AL executive believes it’s too soon to tell how active the trade market will actually be, but he’s hopeful that such options present themselves in the coming weeks.
“I love to invest time and energy in the trade market, so I hope so,” the executive said. “This early in the offseason, it’s really difficult to tell what might happen. I certainly welcome it and I’m happy to contribute to it.”
Not everyone is available … for now
While the trade market could be active, some executives made it clear that certain players will not be changing uniforms.
Athletics general manager David Forst said he has no plans to move Brent Rooker, who quietly put together one of the best offensive seasons in the league last year. Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said any trade inquiries from other clubs on Bo Bichette would be “an easy no,” as Toronto plans to make a run for a postseason spot before Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Chris Bassitt hit free agency next winter.
Of course, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo made a similar claim about Juan Soto in June 2022, then dealt him to the Padres a month later.
In all likelihood, Forst and Atkins are being genuine in their desire not to move either of those players this offseason. But things can change based on the needs and urgency of other clubs, making these – and all potential trade scenarios – very fluid situations.
Versatility sells
Alex Bregman won a Gold Glove at third base this year, while Willy Adames has posted plus-27 outs above average at shortstop since the start of the 2022 campaign. Yet both players have let it be known that they are open to a position change – Bregman to second base, Adames to second or third base – if the right free-agent scenario presents itself.
“Both of those guys can do it,” one NL executive said. “And if that versatility opens up more options for them in terms of interested teams, why wouldn’t they get that out there?”
It would be surprising to see Adames move off shortstop, as he’s the clear-cut No. 1 free agent at the position this winter. Among the teams expected to make a push to sign him are the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox and Giants, with most viewing Los Angeles as the odds-on favorite.
This browser does not support the video element.
Another long winter?
Last winter’s Hot Stove season saw four notable Scott Boras clients – Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery – wait well into the new year before signing deals, all of which contained opt-out clauses that would allow them to test free agency again as soon as this offseason.
Only Snell chose to return to the free-agent market, but a quick scan of our Top 25 free agent list shows the top four players – Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Snell and Alex Bregman – all repped by Boras, who also counts free agents Pete Alonso, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi and Tyler O’Neill among his clients.
This browser does not support the video element.
There is a belief within the industry that some of Boras’ clients might sign quicker than usual rather than dragging out their free agency into 2025. Although last winter saw the four aforementioned free agents all sign between Feb. 27 and March 29, a run of pre-holiday signings by Boras’ top clients wouldn’t be unprecedented.
Following the 2019 season, Boras clients Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon each signed huge free-agent deals at the Winter Meetings in San Diego. Given the markets already developing for Soto, Burnes and Bregman, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a repeat performance at next month’s Winter Meetings in Dallas.
Then again, given the expectations that the Yankees and Mets will be in a crosstown bidding war for Soto, it’s possible his sweepstakes could come to a conclusion prior to the meetings.