We predicted MLB's best in 2024. How'd we do?

Who will be the best players in baseball this season?

It seems like a relatively simple question, but when it comes to predicting baseball, there really is no such thing. At least that’s what we’re telling ourselves.

Just before Opening Day, MLB.com gathered a panel of 11 writers, researchers and analysts to vote on their predictions for the 2024 All-MLB Team. These so-called experts took their best shot, but the baseball season has a way of interfering with even the most well-reasoned prognostications.

And that's exactly what happened here. The All-MLB First and Second Team, presented by MGM Rewards, were announced last month, with fan voting accounting for 50% of the process. While some of the results certainly went as planned, there were plenty of surprises as well.

How did our voters do? Let’s take a closer look:

^Indicates that the player received votes in our preseason poll.

CATCHER

Predictions: Adley Rutschman, BAL (1st) | Will Smith, LAD (2nd)
Results: William Contreras, MIL (1st)^ | Salvador Perez, KC (2nd)

What happened: Contreras (who did get some recognition from our panel), Perez, Rutschman and Smith were All-Stars this summer, at which point this looked like a tight race. But then both Rutschman (.585 OPS) and Smith (.626) fell off steeply in the second half, while Contreras (.896) surged and Perez (.739) held serve. In the end, it wasn’t that close.

Lesson learned: Catchers get banged up, and staying consistent at the plate for a full season while also playing behind it is one of the hardest things to do in baseball. Even the best in the game aren't immune.

FIRST BASE

Predictions: Freddie Freeman, LAD (1st) | Bryce Harper, PHI (2nd)
Results: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (1st)^ | Harper (2nd)

What happened: While Freeman wasn’t an All-MLB selection, he became a postseason legend, World Series MVP and two-time champion in October. Decent consolation prize. Harper took to first base as well as expected in his first full season at the position, but while some of our voters expected Guerrero to bounce back from a subpar 2023, not enough predicted the magnitude of that rebound.

Lesson learned: Guerrero’s 2021 AL MVP runner-up campaign was not a fluke. While his home run production still hasn’t risen back to that level, Vlad Jr. regained his place as one of MLB’s elite hitters in 2024. If his 2025 follows suit, the pending free agent will be a jewel of next offseason’s market.

SECOND BASE

Predictions: Marcus Semien, TEX (1st) | Jose Altuve, HOU (2nd)
Results: Ketel Marte, AZ (1st) | Altuve (2nd)

What happened: Altuve held up his end of the bargain, staying healthy and putting up another solid season. While Semien was a third-place AL MVP finisher in 2023, this season it was Marte who finished third in the NL race, with his best offensive performance since 2019.

Lesson learned: Don't give up on Semien for 2025, as he has finished third in MVP voting in each of the past three odd-numbered seasons (2019, ‘21 and ‘23), while receiving no votes in any of the even-numbered seasons. More seriously, it's probably time to give Marte his due as one of the top second basemen in MLB.

THIRD BASE

Predictions: Austin Riley, ATL (1st) | José Ramírez, CLE (2nd)
Results: Ramírez | Manny Machado, SD (2nd)

What happened: It was a strange year at the hot corner, which went from being one of the most stacked positions in baseball in recent years to being mostly bereft of standout performances. Just three primary third basemen reached 4 WAR in 2024 (per Baseball-Reference), the fewest in a non-shortened season in 31 years. That was down from 10 in 2016 and seven in 2023. One of those three was the ever-productive Ramírez. Riley, on the other hand, got off to a sluggish start, then saw his season end via a fractured hand in mid-August, leaving him with just 19 homers after hitting 33-plus in three straight seasons.

Lesson learned: Don’t count out the 32-year-old Machado, who was hampered by an elbow issue in the second half of 2023, then underwent offseason surgery. That limited Machado to DH duties early in ‘24, but his final four months looked like vintage Machado: an .879 OPS, 24 homers and 76 RBIs in 97 games.

SHORTSTOP

Predictions: Mookie Betts, LAD (1st) | Bobby Witt Jr., KC (2nd)
Results: Witt Jr. (1st) | Francisco Lindor, NYM (2nd)

What happened: Betts showed his versatility and team-first attitude by moving to shortstop in the first place, but while he did play a plurality of his games there in 2024, he moved full-time back to right field after returning from an IL stint on Aug. 12. That’s where he wound up on the All-MLB ballot as well. But even if Betts had remained at short, he wasn’t going to top Witt, who fully blossomed into a five-tool superstar at age 24.

Lesson learned: Betts is supposedly moving back to short again in 2025 -- but think twice before assuming he’ll stay there.

OUTFIELD

Predictions: Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL; Julio Rodríguez, SEA; Juan Soto, NYY (1st) | Fernando Tatis Jr., SD; Aaron Judge, NYY; Corbin Carroll, AZ (2nd)
Results: Soto, Judge, Betts (1st) | Jackson Merrill, SD; Jarren Duran, BOS; Teoscar Hernández, LAD (2nd)

What happened: Soto and Judge dominated in the Bronx, with the latter bouncing back from an injury-shortened season to win his second AL MVP Award. Otherwise, it was something of a tough year for our first-team picks, with Acuña lost for the season after 49 games, and Rodríguez and Carroll unable to fully overcome ice-cold first halves.

Lesson learned: Sometimes, a star turn is truly unpredictable. Even though Merrill had plenty of prospect hype, there was no reason to think a 21-year-old learning a new position (center field) in his first taste of the Majors would immediately become one of the best all-around players in the game.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Predictions: Shohei Ohtani, LAD (1st) | Yordan Alvarez, HOU (2nd)
Results: Ohtani (1st) | Alvarez (2nd)

What happened: We finally nailed one, but this was something of a gimme putt. Ohtani, relegated to full-time DH duty by his Tommy John surgery recovery, authored yet another season for the ages. Alvarez did what he has done for basically his entire career: Mash at an elite level. That was enough to hold off a sensational, 39-homer season from Marcell Ozuna and give us our only clean sweep.

Lesson learned: Ohtani amazing us is about as reliable an outcome as there is in baseball.

STARTING PITCHER

Predictions: Spencer Strider, ATL; Corbin Burnes, BAL; Zack Wheeler, PHI; Pablo López, MIN; George Kirby, SEA (1st) | Logan Webb, SF; Tarik Skubal, DET; Luis Castillo, SEA; Zac Gallen, AZ; Max Fried, ATL (2nd)
Results: Chris Sale, ATL^; Skubal; Paul Skenes, PIT; Wheeler, Burnes (1st) | Seth Lugo, KC; Dylan Cease, SD^; Shota Imanaga, CHC, Framber Valdez, HOU; Michael King, SD (2nd)

What happened: Strider had season-ending elbow surgery after two starts, and instead it was another Braves pitcher, Sale, who soared to NL Cy Young honors. Burnes and Wheeler were as superb as expected, and Skubal even moreso. The rest of our picks all had solid seasons, or better, but it wasn’t enough. Some of the other All-MLB starters (Cease, Valdez) were hardly surprises, but Skenes outdid even his substantial hype, Imanaga outdid his far-more-hyped countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Lugo shocked everyone by throwing more than 200 high-quality innings in only his second season after converting from the bullpen.

Lesson learned: When it comes to predicting pitchers, you are forever at the mercy of which elbow ligaments hold up, and which don’t. But Sale showed that even a 35-year-old with a staggering recent injury history always has a chance to rediscover some magic.

RELIEF PITCHERS

Predictions: Edwin Díaz, NYM; Josh Hader, HOU (1st) | Camilo Doval, SF; Andrés Muñoz, SEA (2nd)
Results: Emmanuel Clase, CLE; Ryan Helsley, STL (1st) | Mason Miller, ATH^; Kirby Yates, TEX (2nd)

What happened: Díaz and Hader still piled up strikeouts at a brisk pace, but neither was up to his usual level in terms of run prevention. Things were worse for Doval, who lost his closing job and actually got sent to Triple-A for a while in August. Clase, on the other hand, posted an all-time relief season, dropping his ERA from 3.22 to 0.61. Helsley led the Majors with 49 saves in his first full-time season on the job, while Miller was a flame-throwing revelation as a rookie and the 37-year-old Yates thrived in his best season since 2019.

Lesson learned: Predicting reliever performance from year to year is like throwing darts in a wind tunnel.