Predicting who will receive, accept qualifying offers

By Mike Petriello | October 29, 2024

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You might think that the 2025 Major League Baseball season doesn’t start until the Dodgers and Cubs face one another in Tokyo on March 18, but there’s a whole lot more to the sport than that. Despite the fact that the World Series only just ended, there are already immediate decisions to be made that will impact next season. Most imminently, that’s the qualifying offer, and which impending free agents might be receiving one before Monday's 5 p.m. ET deadline.

Here's what you need to know, and which players might be considered to receive offers (or not).

What are we talking about here?

There’s a lot more legalese that goes into it – read all about that here – but it’s the first major decision that affects 2025, and it tells us a little about how teams view eligible members of the free agent list. The important points are these:

Those last two lines are important. A number of free agents have previously received the offer, so they aren’t eligible to do so again this year – a group that includes but is not limited to Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Santana and Joc Pederson. Several others were traded or otherwise not on the Opening Day roster of the team they finished the season with, and also aren’t eligible – like Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi and Tanner Scott.

It matters, obviously, for the upcoming season. But in some cases, it can matter well down the line, too. For example: In the winter of 2012-13, the Yankees extended a qualifying offer to outfielder Nick Swisher that at the time was $13.3 million. He declined, later signing a four-year deal with Cleveland. The Yankees then received a compensation pick in the 2013 Draft. They used it to select Aaron Judge.

Last year, all seven players who received the offer declined it. Since 2012, only 10% of offers (13 of 131) have been accepted, which might be evidence teams aren’t aggressive enough in extending it. So, with all that knowledge in the books, what does this year’s market look like? There are some obvious decisions – and some tricky choices.

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1. Definitely receiving an offer. Definitely rejecting an offer.

These eight are the cream of this winter’s free-agent crop. There’s a pretty easy test here for the teams: If you extended a one-year, $21.05 million contract to these stars, would you be ecstatic if they took it? Of course, because the players are worth much more than that, which is why the players won’t accept it, which is why the teams will so obviously issue it, to at least recoup a Draft pick. There’s not even much point in breaking down this group individually. All eight will get one. All eight will decline.

Prediction: All eight receive the offer // all eight decline the offer.

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2. Decisions to put some thought into.

Those eight aren’t likely the only recipients, though, and there’s a surprising number of possibilities this year. On one hand, we’ve already identified eight as definites, and last year only seven offers were given. On the other hand, we did see 14 offers two years ago, so we still have some room here. Let’s break them up into batters and pitchers.

Batters

Walker is probably the winter’s most underrated free agent, given his status as baseball’s best defensive first baseman, who also has posted three consecutive 25-plus-homer seasons. Over the last three seasons, he’s been more valuable on a WAR basis than Alonso, though he’s also more than three years older. That limits a long-term contract he could get, yet would make him perfect if you could get him for, say, one year. (You can’t.)

Hoskins and Goldschmidt each have larger profiles than Walker does, but neither had a terribly standout 2024 season, and they won’t find annual salaries anywhere near this; Goldschmidt is 37, and Hoskins likely won’t even exercise his opt-out. That being the case, their teams won’t risk extending an offer that would likely be accepted. If you’re wondering where Eugenio Suárez is here, Arizona can simply exercise a $15 million team option if it wants to retain him.

Would the Yankees retain Torres? For most of the season, the answer seemed to be clearly “no,” given some high-profile gaffes and inconsistent offense. But after a midseason hitting session with former teammate Gio Urshela, Torres was outstanding to end the season (.313/.386/.454 after Aug. 15) and was effective as a leadoff hitter in the playoffs (.348 OBP). The Yankees do have Jazz Chisholm Jr. available to take over second, but he was capable at third, which would need to be filled if he moved. The feeling here is that Torres still moves on, but it’s worth the Yankee effort to either take him back for one year or get the Draft pick.

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Kim, at 29, may be one of the winter’s most interesting free agents (assuming he exercises his half of a mutual option), given that he’s posted three straight seasons of double-digit homers and steals to go with strong defense, but also missed San Diego’s playoff run due to shoulder surgery and reportedly hired Scott Boras to represent him this winter. If he were healthy, the Padres would probably consider this strongly, but the injury question may give them pause – and they’re never exactly short on shortstops, anyway.

His San Diego teammate, Profar, is a safer bet for an offer, given his shocking 2024 All-Star campaign after an entire decade of up-and-mostly-down play. If anything, the likeliest outcome here seems to be that the two sides come to an agreement on a multiyear deal for a lower average value, given that the Padres have traded for or signed him four different times now.

O’Neill is a more interesting conundrum. On merit alone, his first year in Boston was excellent, thanks to 31 homers and a 132 OPS+. But if there’s anything Boston isn’t short on, it’s outfielders, especially if Ceddanne Rafaela plays more center and less shortstop in 2025 – and/or if Masataka Yoshida can’t be traded. On the other hand, entering his age-30 season and coming off a good year, might O’Neill prefer to find a multiyear deal somewhere now rather than risk trying next winter, given that his previous two seasons were injury-plagued and not nearly as productive? It’s probably worth the risk for Boston to think about this strongly.

Predictions: Walker, Torres and Profar receive offers. Walker and Torres reject theirs, and Profar either accepts or signs a multiyear deal to remain with the Padres.

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Pitchers

Manaea and Severino are Mets teammates with a lot of similarities, in that they’re inconsistent veterans who arrived in Queens on one-year prove-it offers and then, well, proved it, combining for 363 2/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball – numbers that might underrate Manaea, who allowed a mere .170/.230/.307 line in a dozen starts after lowering his arm angle. The Mets don’t really have much of a 2025 rotation at the moment, since it’s basically just David Peterson and the talented but maybe unreliable Kodai Senga.

There’s an argument for the Guardians to try to retain Bieber, since he should be available for part of 2025 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, but if he does return to Cleveland, this won’t be the way they do it. These situations tend to land with two-year deals where it’s understood that the first year won’t be a complete one, as the pitcher rehabs.

Buehler, suddenly, is the most interesting name here, because six weeks ago, this was a clear “no way,” as the two-time All-Star looked like a shell of himself coming off of a second Tommy John surgery, with everything – advanced metrics and the eye test – down across the board, an evaluation that didn’t change after his NLDS Game 3 start ended with six runs allowed and zero strikeouts collected. And then? A scoreless start in the NLCS, and another in the World Series -- not to mention a perfect ninth inning to seal the Dodgers' title -- and suddenly he looks like A Big Game Pitcher again. Are 10 innings enough to change your evaluation of a pitcher? Probably not, but the underlying metrics totally bought into his postseason work. There’s a ton of risk here, but the Dodgers certainly don’t lack for payroll, and they always, always lack for starting pitching.

There's at least an argument to be made that despite a midseason speed bump, Holmes has been one of the best relievers in the Majors in his four years with the Yankees (2.69 ERA, and a 1.35 ERA in the postseason), but even if the Yankees do want to retain him, it probably won't be by more than tripling his $6 million 2024 salary.

Let’s do the Nicks. Martinez spent 2018-21 in Japan and has quietly been a very effective swingman (3.31 ERA) over the last three seasons, even being named the NL Pitcher of the Month in September. He’ll opt out of his $12 million option, and the Reds will need to weigh a big single-year raise against losing a quality veteran from a still-youthful rotation. Pivetta, nearly three years younger, has spent parts of five mostly successful seasons with Boston, a team that needs to add starting whether he stays or not. Given his age, he might be more likely to decline the offer in search of a longer-term deal.

Meanwhile, will Wacha finally find a home? On his sixth team in the last six seasons, his 166 2/3 innings of 3.35 ERA ball were a big part of Kansas City’s turnaround, and he’s likely to decline his $16 million option. At age 33, this is probably his last chance for a solid multiyear deal. At $21.05 million, the qualifying offer isn’t that much more than the option anyway – and Kansas City has real incentive to keep the momentum going.

Predictions: Manaea, Severino, Wacha and Buehler receive the offer. Buehler and Severino accept, while Wacha and Manaea do not.

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3. Final predictions.

So what are we left with?

We’ll say that these 16 players get the offer: Adames, Alonso, Bregman, Buehler, Burnes, Fried, Hernández, Manaea, Pivetta, Profar, Santander, Severino, Soto, Torres, Wacha and Walker.

But only three of them – Buehler, Profar and Severino – will accept. Will we be right? We’ll know shortly, and whether any of them will be accepted by 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 19.

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