These 10 free agents might have walked into a big payday

It’s no surprise that stars such as Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames are among the top free agents available this offseason. These players performed at a high level in 2024, and that was largely expected based on years of consistent production.

• The top 25 free agents this offseason

But what about those who were not necessarily in such prime position when 2024 began? These are the players who really needed a big season to give themselves the best shot to take advantage of free agency.

The following 10 players did exactly that, crushing their contract years and boosting their stock significantly.

(^Indicates free agents who received the one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer on Monday.)

Jurickson Profar, OF

Given that he was released by the Rockies in August 2023 and signed a one-year, $1 million deal with the Padres for 2024, nobody expected Profar to produce a year quite like the one he just had in San Diego. Eleven years after he was ranked MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect, Profar had the type of season that many baseball people long expected from him. In his age-31 season, Profar became a first-time All-Star and set career highs in FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (4.3), OPS (.839), OPS+ (134), home runs (24) and games played (158).

Given that Profar had never remotely approached this level, it might be easy to write this off as a fluky season, but the veteran made real changes that signal he could be a different player. Profar had the second-largest improvement of any qualified player in expected wOBA -- Statcast’s all-encompassing stat based on quality and quantity of contact -- going from .306 in 2023 to .364 in ‘24. With a strong approach (.380 OBP in ‘24) and a new level of contact quality, Profar will receive plenty of interest this winter.

Teoscar Hernández, OF^

After establishing himself as a true middle-of-the-order presence with the Blue Jays from 2020-22 (.852 OPS and 73 home runs), Hernández had a pedestrian contract year with the Mariners in ‘23 (.741 OPS and 1.9 WAR). That led to Hernández signing a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers in an offseason when Los Angeles acquired Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and others. That decision ended up paying dividends for both the player and team alike.

Hernández clubbed a career-high 33 home runs, posted a healthy .840 OPS and made his second All-Star team. Hernández’s production behind the three-headed trio of Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman helped create a potent lineup, and the veteran was undoubtedly a vital member of the Dodgers clubhouse. That set up Hernández to get a strong multi-year offer in his second crack at free agency.

Jack Flaherty, SP

Flaherty was coming off a subpar season with the Cardinals and Orioles in 2023, posting a career-worst 4.99 ERA in 29 games (27 starts) and getting relegated to Baltimore’s bullpen in the playoffs. After injuries and mixed results from 2020-23, it was unclear if Flaherty would ever again find the peak form he exhibited early in his career with St. Louis.

One year later, he was starting Game 1 of the World Series for the Dodgers. And it wasn’t just that. Flaherty churned out his best season since 2019, posting a 3.17 ERA and 3.51 expected ERA while striking out 194 batters in 162 innings for the Tigers and Dodgers, with Detroit trading him at the Deadline. Flaherty generated a career-low 5.9 percent walk rate and tied a career high with a 29.9 percent strikeout rate. The right-hander had some inconsistent postseason starts, but overall, Flaherty proved he’s back to pitching at a high level and should receive plenty of offseason buzz as he enters his age-29 season.

Sean Manaea, SP^

Timing is everything, and that certainly applies to Manaea, who set career-best marks in ERA (3.47), expected ERA (3.75) and innings (181 2/3). Not to mention the left-hander was an integral part of the Mets' postseason run to Game 6 of the NLCS, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five-plus innings in his first three playoff starts before a clunker in his final start. Cumulatively, Manaea had a 3.59 ERA and 203 strikeouts in 200 2/3 innings between the regular season and postseason. That made it a relatively easy decision for Manaea to decline his $13.5 million player option for 2025 and opt to test free agency again.

Similarly to Profar, there’s reason to believe that Manaea’s changes are legitimate. Manaea took inspiration from watching a Chris Sale start on July 25 against the Mets, leading to the left-hander dropping his arm slot and altering his pitch mix to throw more fastballs and sweepers. Starters who provide both quantity and quality tend to get paid quite well in free agency, putting Manaea in line for a sizable contract.

Tyler O'Neill, OF

Apart from his breakout 2021 season with the Cardinals (5.3 WAR, 34 HRs and 148 OPS+), O’Neill struggled to put together a strong full season as a big leaguer. That’s no longer the case, after O’Neill crushed 31 home runs with a 132 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR in 113 games in his first season with the Red Sox, following a trade from St. Louis. The timing couldn’t have been better for the pending free agent, given that O’Neill was both injured and not performing at a high level from 2022-23.

While he still spent a chunk of time on the injured list and didn’t quite reach the heights he achieved in 2021, O’Neill showed the power that made him such a tantalizing talent. He ranked in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, expected SLG, hard-hit rate and bat speed in 2024, which supported his 31 homers and .511 SLG. O’Neill’s injury history, sketchy track record and inflated strikeout rate in 2024 (33.6 percent) will probably give some teams cause for concern, but the thought of a potential everyday outfielder with 30-plus home runs and a .500 SLG will garner plenty of interest.

Luis Severino, SP^

Severino went from a 6.65 ERA over 89 1/3 innings in his final season with the Yankees in 2023 to a resurgent first season with the Mets (3.91 ERA and 2.1 WAR in 182 innings). That improvement was no fluke -- Severino dropped his expected ERA from an ugly 5.89 mark in 2023 to a solid 3.88 figure in ‘24. Most of that was tied to reducing his opponents’ quality of contact and limiting home runs. (He allowed the same number of homers in 2024 as he did in ’23, but in nearly 100 more innings.)

What didn’t return was Severino’s previous level of swing-and-miss stuff. Severino’s 22.0 percent whiff rate (22nd percentile) and 21.2 percent strikeout rate (34th percentile) were a far cry from his 2017-18 peak, when the right-hander had a 27.5 percent whiff rate and 28.8 percent strikeout rate, respectively. That’s not to say that Severino can’t find success with this new skillset, but the lack of track record here could give teams some hesitation.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP

You’re probably wondering how Kikuchi is on this list after posting a higher ERA in 2024 (4.05) than in ‘23 (3.86). Run prevention is an important job for a pitcher (duh) but it can be incomplete in judging performance. In the case of Kikuchi’s 2024 season, every meaningful indicator beyond ERA showed a pitcher who had a career-best season.

The left-hander set career-best marks in WAR (3.5), strikeout rate (28.0%), walk rate (6.0%), expected ERA (3.75) and FIP (3.46), all while logging a career-high 175 2/3 innings. In today’s baseball environment, teams will look beyond the raw ERA and see a pitcher with markedly better command, improved stuff and a career-best 95.5 mph average four-seamer. It also doesn’t hurt that he finished strong, delivering a 2.70 ERA, 3.07 FIP and 31.8 percent strikeout rate in 10 starts for the Astros down the stretch, after Houston acquired him from Toronto in a Deadline deal.

Blake Treinen, RP

What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, Treinen had missed the entire 2023 season due to shoulder labrum and rotator cuff repair surgery. Having pitched just five innings between 2022-23 and attempting to return from major shoulder surgery in his age-36 season, there was no guarantee that Treinen would ever return to his previous level.

So much for that. Treinen was downright dominant in the regular season, posting a 1.93 ERA and 2.38 xERA in 46 2/3 innings. The right-hander carried that into October, when he pitched a plethora of high-leverage innings, including in the Dodgers’ World Series clincher against the Yankees. Treinen’s stuff is still comically good -- headlined by one of baseball’s top sweepers and a bowling-ball sinker -- leading to a 30.4 percent strikeout rate. Add in a career-low 6.0 percent walk rate and Treinen should be one of the top relievers in free agency, even as he’s about to enter his age-37 season.

Jose Iglesias, INF

Iglesias’ ascent from not playing in the Majors in 2023, to signing a Minor League deal last offseason, to becoming an integral part of a Mets team that made it to Game 6 of the NLCS was nothing short of remarkable. Outside of his 39-game stint with the Orioles in 2020, Iglesias enjoyed a career-best season, with 2.5 WAR and an .830 OPS in 85 games. Between his production and invaluable influence on the Mets clubhouse, Iglesias revived his career in a major way.

That’s not to say that we should expect Iglesias to perform near this level again. Iglesias’ .382 BABIP likely isn’t sustainable and his .362 wOBA was a whopping 50 points higher than his .312 xwOBA, making him one of the more fortunate hitters in baseball. Still, the fact that Iglesias has put himself in a position to be a real MLB option is impressive given where he was at this point last offseason.

Matthew Boyd, SP

On an inning-per-inning basis, Boyd has never been better than he was for the Guardians in 39 2/3 regular-season innings (2.72 ERA and 3.10 xERA) and three excellent playoff starts (0.77 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings). The veteran left-hander had missed a little over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2023, but he returned to pitch at an entirely new level with Cleveland, becoming the club’s de facto No. 2 starter in the postseason.

Given that this was still a small sample and the lefty hasn’t cleared 100 innings in a season since 2019, Boyd will likely have plenty of hesitant teams on the open market. But for those teams who can use Boyd creatively -- much like Cleveland did -- it’s possible the left-hander can be a five-and-dive starter who doesn’t see a lineup for a third time too often. In today’s environment, teams will find a way to utilize Boyd, even if he doesn’t produce a ton of high-quality innings.