Ranking the 8 sluggers lined up for tonight's HR Derby

The T-Mobile Home Run Derby, in many ways, has provided as many memories over the last couple of decades as the All-Star Game itself, from Josh Hamilton’s show in Yankee Stadium to Aaron Judge launching balls in Miami to Juan Soto just last year.

There’s little reason we won’t see more of those this year, with one of the most superstar-packed Derbies in recent memory. Sure, the defending champ, Soto, isn’t here. But another two-time champ is, as well as the all-time leader in homers in one Derby, an MVP, a postseason MVP and two of the most exciting young players in the sport. This one is stacked.

Every competitor has a real chance to win this thing; otherwise, they wouldn't be here. But because I am a professional prognosticator, or at least someone who types many words very fast about baseball hopefully for your amusement and enlightenment, I must make some predictions. So here are your 2023 Home Run Derby Power Rankings. Any of these guys could win. Here's a semi-educated guess at who might.

(To be clear: I’ve listed the players in order of what I believe to be their likelihood of winning. Their seeding -- which is based on their 2023 homer totals through July 4 -- is also listed.)

• FAQ: HR Derby rules, matchups, more

1. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets (No. 2 seed)
First-round opponent: Julio Rodríguez
There may be no human more perfectly designed for the Home Run Derby than Alonso. He obviously has the power: Did you know he’s already fifth on the Mets’ all-time home run list in just his fifth season? (Coming for you, HoJo!) We know he has the consistent Derby swing: He has won this twice already and has actually hit more Derby homers, in total, than anyone in Derby history. But perhaps most important, he has the swagger: Who can forget his pre-Derby dancing? Alonso makes the Derby even more fun than it already is, and I, personally, hope he takes part in it every year the rest of his career -- maybe the rest of his life. He’s trying to become the second person ever to win three Derbies (the other is Ken Griffey Jr.) and, all told, he’s the favorite every year he does it.

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays (No. 6 seed)
First-round opponent: Mookie Betts
In 2019, Vlad Jr. set the all-time record for most home runs in a Derby with 91. (He hit 40 in the second round alone.) One thing Vlad Jr. did not do that year, however, was win: He lost 29-22 in the finals to Alonso. That’s the last Derby Vlad Jr. has taken part in, but he’s back this year, trying to at last win the title that eluded him four years ago. He is trying to make some history of his own as well. If he wins, he and his Hall of Fame father will become the only father-son combo ever to win the Home Run Derby (Vlad Sr. won in 2007 in San Francisco).

3. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners (No. 7 seed)
First-round opponent: Pete Alonso
The last man to win the Home Run Derby in his home stadium was Bryce Harper back in 2018, when the game was held in Washington. (Harper used to play for the Nationals; you may remember this.) The pump is very much primed, then, for Rodríguez, who finished in second place to Soto last year and had two of the five best rounds ever before tiring and ending up with only 18 in the finals. He’s actually already, after just one year, eighth all time in total Home Run Derby homers and will likely be in the top four after this year. And he’ll be doing it in front of a fanbase that adores him. He’d be the favorite in any field without those top two. (Or one without Judge, anyway.)

4. Luis Robert Jr., OF, White Sox (No. 1 seed)
First-round opponent: Adley Rutschman
Robert is finally having the season we all thought he could have if he could just stay healthy: He already has more homers than he did the last two seasons combined. What makes you most excited about Robert in the Derby is not just his power, though it is obviously substantial: It’s the compact nature of his swing, so natural and so repeatable, exactly the sort of swing that resonates in a contest like this one. And for the record: We’d love if if he could give us this incredible look after at least one of his homers.

5. Adolis García, OF, Rangers (No. 4 seed)
First-round opponent: Randy Arozarena
Before the season was even a month old, García was launching three homers in a 5-for-5 game that further announced him as one of the most thrilling power bats in the league. But now he’s a linchpin of one of the best offenses in the game, a team that is in first place and might be the biggest surprise in the entire sport. He also has a quick, but long and sweeping, swing that seems designed for that unique looping arch of the Home Run Derby. He may not hit the most homers. But he may have the most majestic ones.

6. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays (No. 5 seed)
First-round opponent: Adolis García
One thing we know for sure about Arozarena? He comes up huge in big moments. (To say the least.) The player we were all introduced to during the incredible 2020 postseason -- a guy who won an ALCS MVP the year before he won Rookie of the Year -- has become almost a grizzled veteran on this Rays team, which currently has the second-best winning percentage in franchise history. (Behind that 2020 team, which obviously played a shortened schedule.) Arozarena may not quite be the Ruthian star he looked like in that postseason, but he has become one of the most exciting players in baseball to watch -- a consummate showman, even, as we also saw in the World Baseball Classic. He might not have the raw power of some of the guys on this list, but if he needs one more homer with the clock ticking down … you know he’ll rise to the occasion.

7. Mookie Betts, RF, Dodgers (No. 3 seed)
First-round opponent: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
“It’s the last thing I haven’t done,” Betts said, when asked why he -- an MVP winner, a World Series champion and a likely Hall of Famer -- agreed to take part in his first Home Run Derby. (He also said his wife wanted him to do it. Might have had something to do with it, too.) He doesn’t seem a natural fit for a competition like this, but Betts often doesn’t seem like a natural fit for a lot of the amazing things he does, and he keeps doing them anyway. This feels a little bit like Michael Jordan joining the 3-point contest just to keep himself entertained -- he did not do well, to say the least -- but even if Betts doesn’t do much better than Jordan did, he’ll be just as much fun to watch.

8. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles (No. 8 seed)
First-round opponent: Luis Robert Jr.
Only one catcher -- the Royals’ Salvador Perez -- has competed in the Derby in the past five years, and he didn’t make it out of the first round in 2021. Only one catcher, Ivan Rodriguez in 2005, has ever made it to the Finals. And Rustchman only has 11 homers this year. He’s one of the best players in the game and the face of a very young and very exciting Orioles team. It’s going to be excellent to see him on such a big stage like this. But he’s pretty easily the biggest longshot in this competition.