These are fantasy's top starting pitchers

Given the inherent risks of the position and the diminished number of innings starting pitchers throw in today’s game, how you choose to construct your fantasy rotation during draft season could have a dramatic impact on how your team does in the year ahead.

Many will go with a balanced approach, selecting at least one ace in the first three rounds and supplementing their staffs with several pitchers from Tiers 3-5. Others will choose to take an aggressive approach, looking to come away with multiple pitchers from the top two tiers and perhaps even grabbing another from Tier 3. There’s also the “zero SP” strategy, wherein you avoid selecting a starter until the draft gets into the double-digit rounds.

Whichever approach you choose, here is a tier-by-tier guide to the top starting pitchers in MLB.com’s 2023 fantasy rankings.

Tier 1: Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole

Though Burnes broke out during the shortened 2020 season and won the NL Cy Young Award the following year, there were some concerns about how he’d hold up after tossing a career-high 167 innings in 2021. But Burnes cemented his status as one of MLB’s top arms in 2022, reaching the 200-inning threshold for the first time and recording a 2.94 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and an NL-leading 243 strikeouts.

Burnes holds a slight edge over Cole in our rankings. The Yankees ace allowed an AL-high 33 homers and saw his ERA increase to 3.50 in 2022, recording an ERA north of 4.00 after the All-Star break for the second straight year. However, he also led all pitchers with 257 K’s. Cole has fanned more than 240 batters in each of the past four full seasons.

Tier 2: Sandy Alcantara, Brandon Woodruff, Shane McClanahan, Jacob deGrom, Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider, Dylan Cease, Justin Verlander, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodón, Zack Wheeler, Shane Bieber

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, Alcantara headlines Tier 2 after an incredible 2022 campaign in which he led MLB in innings (228 2/3) and complete games (6) while recording a 2.28 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 207 strikeouts. The 27-year-old is the only pitcher who has reached 200 innings pitched in each of the past two years.

Alcantara is one of several newcomers to the ranks of the fantasy elite, along with McClanahan, Strider, Cease, Ohtani and Rodón. Woodruff, deGrom, Nola, Scherzer, Wheeler and Bieber were all among the earliest drafted starting pitchers last year, and their performances in 2022 did nothing to diminish their stature as fantasy aces.

They’re joined in this tier by another familiar face -- Verlander, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year after missing all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Verlander is entering his age-40 season, which may cause some fantasy managers to steer clear of him, but he has proven time and time again that he can be trusted.

Tier 3: Alek Manoah, Julio Urías, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, Joe Musgrove, Tyler Glasnow, Cristian Javier, Triston McKenzie, Robbie Ray

The third tier includes a handful of pitchers who thrived last season but struck out less than a batter per inning, including Manoah (2.24 ERA, 8.2 K/9), Urías (2.16 ERA, 8.5 K/9), Fried (2.48 ERA, 8.3 K/9), Valdez (2.82 ERA, 8.7 K/9) and McKenzie (2.96 ERA, 8.9 K/9).

There’s also Gausman, who had the peripherals of a fantasy ace but was hurt by a .363 batting average on balls in play, the highest in MLB. Gausman and Ray are the only pitchers in this tier who struck out 200-plus batters in 2022, though Darvish (197), Javier (194), Valdez (194), Gallen (192) and McKenzie (190) came close. Castillo might have gotten there if he didn’t miss the first month of the season due to a shoulder issue.

Javier amazingly racked up his 194 K’s despite spending part of the season in the bullpen and finishing the year with 148 2/3 innings. He’s now seemingly solidified as a full-time starter for the Astros, who signed him to a five-year extension on Feb. 10.

Glasnow, meanwhile, is a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy managers who want to roll the dice on a pitcher who owns a 2.75 ERA and a 12.7 K/9 since 2019 but has made just 39 starts in that span.

Tier 4: Logan Webb, Kyle Wright, George Kirby, Nestor Cortes Jr., Hunter Greene, Logan Gilbert, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Nick Lodolo, Lance Lynn, Freddy Peralta, Lucas Giolito, Jesús Luzardo

Webb followed up his 2021 breakout with another strong season, something Wright, Cortes and Gilbert will look to emulate after putting together breakouts of their own last year.

Kirby, Greene, Lodolo and Luzardo are among the candidates to make a leap in 2023, and this tier also includes several pitchers looking to bounce back from injuries (Severino, Snell, Lynn, Peralta) or poor performance (Giolito).

Kershaw made just 22 starts last year, marking his sixth straight full season with fewer than 30. The future Hall of Famer can no longer be counted on to deliver ace-like volume, but when he’s healthy, he can still bring it.

Tier 5: Joe Ryan, Chris Bassitt, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Pablo López, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Drew Rasmussen, Luis Garcia, Jeffrey Springs, Brady Singer

The fifth tier includes a wide variety of choices for fantasy managers to round out their pitching staffs. You have your higher floor/lower ceiling guys (Bassitt, López, Montgomery, Garcia); a group of hurlers coming off their first full seasons as consistently viable mixed-league options (Ryan, Gonsolin, Rasmussen, Springs, Singer); and some higher risk/higher ceiling options such as May and Sale.

Then there’s Morton, who doesn’t really fit into any of those categories. The 39-year-old is one of three pitchers who has recorded 200 or more strikeouts in each of the past four full seasons, along with Cole and Nola, but he’s also coming off a 4.34 ERA and his worst FIP (4.26) since 2010. Morton’s ability to rack up strikeouts gives him a high floor, but he also has a higher ceiling than many of the pitchers in this tier considering what we saw from him in 2021 (3.34 ERA, 216 K’s).