Ranking every slugger ahead of '22 HR Derby

The T-Mobile Home Run Derby is happening tonight! The field features a downright electric mix of young and old, power and skill, past, present and future. I cannot wait.

Every competitor has a real chance to win this thing; otherwise, they wouldn't be here. But because I am a professional prognosticator, or at least someone who types many words very fast about baseball hopefully for your amusement and enlightenment, I must make some predictions. So here are your 2022 Home Run Derby Power Rankings. Any of these guys could win. Here's a semi-educated guess at who might when the event begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

And we of course have to start with the defending champ.

1. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
First-round opponent: Ronald Acuña Jr.
Was Alonso invented solely for the Home Run Derby? Mets fans who have been enjoying Alonso leading them to a first-place team at the All-Star break may disagree, but from the outside, Alonso has everything you’d want: Prodigious power, obviously, but also swagger, showmanship, consistency (you have to do it for three rounds after all) and a clear understanding of the moment. He has won the last two, he has hit more homers in the Derby than anyone in history and he clearly wants to tie Ken Griffey Jr.’s record of three Derby titles and become the first player to win three straight. He’s the obvious first pick.

2. Kyle Schwarber, OF, Phillies
First-round opponent: Albert Pujols
Schwarber made the finals in 2018, losing by one homer to current teammate Bryce Harper. But as good as that version of Schwarber was, this one is better. His June was Ruthian, and while he’s not necessarily as well-rounded a hitter as we once thought he might be, he has honed his home run swing down to its essential form. It seems to have no wasted energy: Just pure power. In retrospect, it’s a travesty that Schwarber has only been in one of these.

3. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals
First-round opponent: José Ramírez
Soto has a ton of power, obviously, but there may be no player whose signature skillset (pitch selection) is less served by a Home Run Derby. You do not, in fact, get any points for taking pitches. That said, Soto himself said last year that he felt the Derby helped get his swing back on track, and he went out and had a monster second half. Soto’s swing is pure, and he was the guy who knocked out Shohei Ohtani last year, so doubt him at your peril.

4. Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves
First-round opponent: Pete Alonso
Acuña has only been a part of the Derby once before, back in 2019, and he made it to the semifinals before losing to Alonso. His power is one of his best attributes, of course, but it’s not his only one; maybe he can get some bonus points by running around the bases faster than anyone else. His slugging percentage is lower than it has been during any season of his career, and he still might not be 100 percent recovered from the knee injury that cost him most of last season (and part of this one). Acuña is electric, but I’m not sure he’s a high-priority pick here.

5. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
First-round opponent: Corey Seager
First off: It’s awesome that Rodríguez is a part of this. It’s awesome that he’s a part of this All-Star Game at all. The way it’s going, he’s going to get these Mariners into October. Rodríguez, like Acuña, is absurdly fast, and his incredible power is just further testament to his explosive, popping-at-the-seams talent. But this is his first Derby, and his first All-Star Game, and really his first everything. Expecting him to win this his first time out of the gate, against this Murderer’s Row, is surely expecting too much. Right?

6. José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians
First-round opponent: Juan Soto
Ramírez is putting together another MVP-level season that hardly anyone is noticing, which is basically what he does every year. Ramírez has resisted being in the Derby in the past, but this could be the sort of high-profile event that may finally get the rest of the baseball world to realize just how great he truly is. For what it’s worth: The switch-hitter is slugging 150 points higher from the left side of the plate than the right side.

7. Corey Seager, SS, Rangers
First-round opponent: Julio Rodríguez
Seager was the last addition to the Derby, his first since his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2016. Back in that one, he was the No. 8 seed facing off against No. 1 seed Mark Trumbo, and you can tell how long ago '16 was by the fact that the thing that people were most excited about for that Home Run Derby was that Trumbo was a part of it. Seager got off to a slow start this year, but no one remembers that now: He’s got 21 homers and is on quite a roll.

8. Albert Pujols, DH, Cardinals
First-round opponent: Kyle Schwarber
Oh, this is exciting, isn’t it? Having Albert back for the first time since 2015 -- and remember how much he bonded with Joc Pederson and his brother back then? -- is just a joy, particularly in his last season before retirement. And he’s been hitting the ball a lot harder in the days heading into the All-Star Game: He’s hot right now. Still: There are three rounds, and even if Pujols gets off to a fast start, he’s still 42 years old; fatigue will be sure to set in.