Breaking down the Top 30 Prospects lists

Now that all of MLB Pipeline’s 2021 Top 30 prospects lists have been published, we can dig in a little more. And it’s a lot to sift through, what with 900 total players and 4,264 total grades handed out to those hitters and pitchers.

There are some conclusions that are easy to draw from this breakdown. For the most part, the teams we ranked at the top of our farm system rankings this year score very well when averaging out the grades we handed out, a sign of top talent bringing in high grades and depth of talent helping to keep the average up as well. Seven of the top 10 farm systems also appear on a top 10 list based on highest average overall grades. And the teams who have the chance to jump into the top 10 system rankings can be found all over these lists.

But the biggest conclusion might simply be that the Rays have a very, very good farm system and this exercise easily confirms their standing at No. 1 overall.

Overall (Top 30 ranking in parenthesis)
1. Rays, 50.0 (1)
2. Orioles, 48.33 (5)
3. Tigers, 48.17 (2)
4. Marlins, 47.83 (4)
T5. Pirates, 47.67 (8)
T5. Indians, 47.67 (13)
7. D-backs, 47.50 (9)
8. Dodgers, 47.17 (14)
9. Mariners, 47.00 (3)
T10. Rangers, 46.83 (21)
T10. Cubs, 46.83 (22)

There are three top 10 farm systems not on the list above. The Blue Jays (No. 7) are the closest to this top 10, coming in a tie for 12th (46.67). The Royals (No. 10) are tied for 16th (45.83) while the Padres (No. 6) are tied for 22nd (45.17). Of the teams not ranked in the top 10 among farm systems, the Indians lead the way with their 47.67-point average with the Dodgers (47.17) not far behind.

Top teams, bottom farms
It can be tough to win at the big league level and maintain a strong farm system simultaneously for long periods of time. That’s what makes what the Rays and Dodgers are doing, even with Los Angeles falling out of the top 10 farm systems, so remarkable. To have the two teams from last year’s World Series also in the top 10 based on average grades is unusual and shows both organizations have the chance to be competing to hoist the World Series trophy for years to come.

Conversely, many of the teams that made the playoffs in 2020 are found on the bottom third of the average points list. Here’s a list of the playoff teams not in the top 10 above and their score, where they rank based on average grades, along with where they stand in our farm system rankings:

T12. Blue Jays, 46.67 (No. 7)
14. Braves, 46.00 (No. 15)
15. Yankees, 45.94 (No. 18)
17. Twins, 46.05 (No. 12)
18. Reds, 45.67 (No. 20)
T22. White Sox, 45.17 (No. 16)
T22. Padres, 45.17 (No. 6)
23. Cardinals, 45.16 (No. 17)
26. A’s, 44.50 (No. 26)
28. Brewers, 44.35 (No. 28)
30. Astros, 43.67 (No. 29)

Top 5 hitting and pitching prospects
In case you were wondering why the Rays are considered the best farm system, you can see they sit at the top of both the Top 30 prospects overall grades by hitters and pitchers.

Average overall hitter grades
1. Rays (50.0)
2. Orioles (48.33)
3. Tigers (48.17)
4. Marlins (47.83)
T5. Indians (47.67)
T5. Pirates (47.67)

Average overall pitching grades
1. Rays (50.0)
2. Tigers (49.38)
3. Marlins (48.57)
4. Orioles (48.33)
5. Indians (47.50)

There’s a lot of synergy among these two lists, with the five teams appearing on both lists (The Pirates, in case you were wondering, are tied for sixth based on pitching grades at 47.19.). It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Orioles, Tigers, Marlins and Pirates are ranked among our top 10 farm systems. The Indians, as noted above, come in at No. 13, but this is another indicator that they’re a system to keep a very close eye on. Looking at the flip side of the coin, the Brewers (44.35), Nationals (43.83) and Astros (43.57) are the bottom three in terms of hitting grades average, while the Rockies (43.46), A’s (43.33) and Mets (42.50) are at the bottom of the pitching rankings.

Individual tool grades
We can drill down even deeper to look at individual grades. For hitters, that’s the five tools (hit, power, run, arm, field) and for pitchers, it’s looking at pitches (fastball, curve, slider, changeup) along with control. This might be a shock to hear, but the Rays lead all teams with six appearances on the tools lists below, followed by the Marlins with five. Eight of our top 10 farm systems are mentioned, landing on these lists a grand total of 22 times.

Hit
1. Mariners (53.8)
T2. Indians (52.8)
T2. Rays (52.8)
4. Padres (51.7)
5. Blue Jays (51.5)

Hit (individual)
1. 80: Wander Franco, Rays
2. 70: Nick Madrigal, White Sox
3. 65: Jarred Kelenic, Mariners; Andrew Vaughn, White Sox; Austin Martin, Blue Jays

Power
1. Mets (53.3)
2. Mariners (51.7)
3. Twins (51.3)
4. Giants (51.1)
5. Padres (50.4)

Power (individual)
1. 70: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers
2. 65: Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Julio Rodriguez, Mariners; Marco Luciano, Giants
3. 60: 39 players tied

Run
1. Angels (56.2)
2. Rays (55.9)
T3. Royals (54.2)
T3. Mariners (54.2)
5. A’s (53.3)

Run (individual)
1. 80: CJ Abrams, Padres; Jordyn Adams, Angels; Dasan Brown, Blue Jays; Trent Deveaux, Angels; James Beard, White Sox
2. 75: Casey Martin, Phillies; David Calabrese, Angels; Brandon Lockridge, Yankees
3. 70: 18 players tied

Arm
1. Marlins (58.8)
2. Astros (58.2)
3. Cardinals (57.2)
4. Rockies (56.8)
5. Rangers (56.4)

Arm (individual)
1. 80: Pedro Leon, Astros
2. 75: Gabriel Arias, Indians
3. 70: 18 players tied

Field
1. Royals (55.8)
2. Marlins (54.4)
3. Rockies (54.1)
4. Rays (53.8)
5. Nationals (53.8)

Field (individual)
1. 80: Cristian Pache, Braves
2. 75: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pirates
3. 70: Nick Pratto, Royals

Fastball
1. White Sox (61.9)
2. Indians (61.3)
3. Yankees (61.2)
4. Rays (60.4)
T5. D-backs (60.3)
T5. Cubs (60.3)

Fastball (individual)
1. 80: Eight players tied

Curveball

1. Yankees (58.1)
   2. Rangers (57.5)
   3. Astros (56.0)
   4. Nationals (55.8)
   5. Giants (55.6)

Curveball (individual)
1. 70: Bryan Abreu, Astros
2. 65: Burl Carraway, Cubs; Chris Clarke, Cubs
3. 60: 61 players tied

Slider
1. Rangers (56.3)
2. Red Sox (55.8)
T3. Rays (55.0)
T3. Astros (55.0)
T3. A’s (55.0)
T3. Marlins (55.0)

Slider (individual)
1. 70: Max Mayer, Marlins
2. 65: 6 players tied

Changeup
1. Dodgers (52.7)
T1. Indians (52.7)
3. Yankees (52.3)
4. Marlins (52.1)
T4. Red Sox (52.1)

Changeup (individual)
1. 70: Jackson Kowar, Royals; Ryan Pepiot, Red Sox
2. 65: Sixto Sánchez, Marlns; Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles; Alexander Vizcaino, Yankees; Ben Hernandez, Royals
3. 60: 27 players tied

Control
1. Tigers (53.1)
2. Twins (52.3)
3. Rays (51.8)
4. Marlins (51.1)
5. Blue Jays (50.7)

Control (individual)
1. 65: George Kirby, Mariners; Bailey Ober, Twins
2. 60: 20 players tied

Who’s ready to help?
Getting players to the big leagues is obviously the ultimate goal, right? Teams will undoubtedly need plenty of help from their farm systems in 2021, some to help rebuild, others to put them over the top. Here are the teams with the most Top 30 prospects with big league ETAs of 2021 or 2022.

1. A’s (22)
T2. Dodgers, Mariners, Nationals, Phillies, Red Sox, Royals (20)
T3. 8 teams tied with 19

Youth movements
There’s been all that talk about the youth movement at the Major League level, but being young down on the farm can be a very good thing, too. The average age of players on each team’s Top 30 might point to how many players far away from the big leagues each organization has, but it also could be an indicator of teams that could have prolonged success in terms of farm system health. The Padres and Pirates are both top 10 farm systems overall now and in the top 10 average age list below. Keep an eye on the Indians and Giants, who could develop into top 10 systems as that youth develops.

1. Angels, 01/08/2000
2. Cubs, 10/25/1999
3. Indians, 08/31/1999
4. Padres, 08/27/1999
5. Cardinals, 07/09/1999
6. Pirates, 05/17/1999
7. Giants, 04/22/1999
8. Reds, 03/02/1999
9. Mets, 02/17/1999
10. Yankees, 02/15/1999

Youngest players
1. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (08/13/2004)
2. Samuel Zavala, Padres (07/15/2004)
3. Victor Acosta, Padres (06/10/2004)
4. Manuel Beltre, Blue Jays (06/09/2004)
5. Danny De Andrade, Twins (04/10/2004)
6. Daniel Vasquez, Royals (04/06/2004)
7. Jackson Brayan Chourio, Brewers (03/11/2004)
8. Daniel Montesino, Padres (02/12/2004)
9. Denzer Guzman, Angels (02/08/2004)
10. Armando Cruz, Nationals (01/16/2004)