Who has the edge for Rookies of the Year?

This edition of the Rookie Power Rankings is nothing if not stable.

Nine of the 10 members from the last RPR two weeks ago, including each of the list's top four, return for this final edition of June. Florida is once again well-represented with Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers and Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena sitting in the driver's seats for NL and AL Rookie of the Year Awards as things look right now to the MLB Pipeline staff. That said, the Sunshine State did lose a Power Rankings representative in Marlins infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- the only player who dropped off the list as the slugger fights through a tough June that has seen him hit .228 in 25 games.

As always, the RPR represents a mix of both performance and projection and takes into account both what a player has done this season and what he is expected to do the rest of the way. With the All-Star break fast approaching, the scales on that equation will tip more toward performance in the second half, but for this edition, both sides are weighed fairly equally. (All stats are through Monday's games.)

1. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Marlins (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 1
This marks the Miami southpaw’s third straight appearance at the top spot. Rogers leads all rookies with a 2.7 fWAR and tops qualified rookie starting pitchers with his 2.08 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings. He still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 15 starts this season, and he has fanned at least five batters in every outing. His most recent start on June 23 (5 IP, 3 ER in a loss to the Blue Jays) caused his ERA to jump over 2.00 for the first time since April 15, but that’s picking nits. It’s going to take a few more slipups for Rogers to tumble out of the top spot.

2. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 2
Speaking of steady Eddies from Florida, Arozarena continues to be locked into the second spot and the top one among position players. The Tampa Bay slugger has run hot and cold since our most recent RPR by mixing in three separate three-hit efforts with multiple 0-fers, but overall, he continues to build a Rookie of the Year case as strong as anyone. His 1.5 fWAR is second-best among rookie position players, and with a .263/.345/.421 line, 10 homers and 11 steals, he remains an above-average offensive threat. Mix in the good defense from the outfield corners, and last year’s postseason star has multiple ways to contribute to Tampa Bay’s push to win the AL East.

3. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 3
Now in his third straight week on the RPR podium, Anderson looks like he is holding serve with Rogers in their chases to be not only the best rookie pitchers in their own division but in all of the Majors. Anderson’s nine strikeouts over six innings Saturday against the Reds matched a career high. After showing signs of struggling with control early in 2021, the right-hander has issued only eight walks over his last seven starts (36 2/3 innings) dating back to May 21. He owns a 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 88 K’s in 81 2/3 frames on the season and is worth 1.9 fWAR, second-best among rookie hurlers and 23rd among all starting pitchers.

4. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 4
Carlson’s placement remains as much about projection and consistent playing time as anything else. In need of offense, St. Louis manager Mike Shildt has started to use the former Top 15 overall prospect as his leadoff hitter with promising results. Carlson is now hitting .321/.367/.536 with a homer, a triple and a double in his seven games batting first. His .267/.351/.415 line, seven homers and 115 wRC+ through 77 games don’t scream Rookie of the Year contender if the season ended today, but two years removed from a 26-homer season in the Minors, there is a bet to be made that there’s more power in the tank than he’s shown so far. At the least, Carlson rarely chases pitches out of the zone -- he’s in the 88th percentile in chase rate -- and that should help him flourish in his new role as a leadoff hitter.

5. Adolis García, OF, Rangers (not eligible for Top 30)
Previous RPR: 9
Rookie wall? What rookie wall? García didn’t homer at all during a 17-game stretch from May 27 to June 16, during which he posted a .537 OPS. At the time, it looked like his Cinderella rookie campaign might be turning back into a pumpkin. The clock, however, has not yet struck midnight. In 11 games since the last RPR, the Texas slugger has homered four times, slugged .700 and posted a 1.070 OPS. His 20 homers on the season lead all rookies -- Ryan Mountcastle is second with 14 -- and place him tied for sixth in the entire Majors. He also leads rookie position players with a 2.1 fWAR and is hitting .279/.318/.550 in 280 plate appearances. While there still might be a chance that García’s 30 percent strikeout rate could bring down the rest of that profile, such time is running out as the season turns toward July.

6 (tie). Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 6
Mize continues to come through on his promise as a No. 1 overall pick in his second Major League turn with Detroit. He hasn’t allowed three earned runs in a start since April 23, an 11-outing stretch that includes nine quality starts. He owns a 3.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go with 71 strikeouts and 26 walks in 88 1/3 innings on the season. No rookie has more frames under his belt in 2021 than Mize as the Tigers continue to give him a long chain on the bump. One development to note: the former Auburn star is throwing more sliders with each passing month, and the pitch has been his most-used in June. A good reason why: the slider’s 30.9 percent whiff rate is highest among Mize’s five pitches as measured by Statcast.

6 (tie). Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 7
Can we make this whole blurb about Hayes’ throw to nab Yadier Molina on Sunday? No? Well, you should click the video below to witness the third baseman’s cannon for yourself anyway. It was just one play, sure, but the Infield Highlight of the Year candidate showcased just what makes Hayes so special defensively and spotlighted why he could win a Gold Glove there this year. A wrist injury that kept the 24-year-old out for much of April and all of May is the only aspect hindering his RPR candidacy. Hayes has the goods at the plate as well with a .284/.370/.455 line, 130 wRC+ and three homers in 24 games. He has been worth 0.7 fWAR since his return on June 3, sixth-best among all third basemen. The more playing time he gobbles up like balls at the hot corner, the better chance he gets to claim a Rookie of the Year award he could have won in 2020.

8. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: Unranked
The first (and only) unranked contender to jump into the Top 10 this week. Clase had previously spent some time in the RPR at No. 9 (twice) and No. 10 but slipped out because of the tough case relievers have when compared to their starting-pitcher and position-player brethren. The Cleveland closer has made that case all the easier by being nearly as good as he could possibly be so far in June. The right-hander has struck out 11 while scattering only two hits and one walk in eight scoreless frames this month. He last allowed a baserunner of any kind on June 8, giving him a streak of six straight perfect outings. His 0.85 ERA is third-lowest among all relievers, and he has struck out 35 in 31 2/3 innings. Perhaps most importantly, he has forced grounders on 72.3 percent of the batted balls against him. It helps to have a cutter (a cutter!) that averages 100.0 mph.

9. Ryan Mountcastle, OF/1B, Orioles (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 10
Mountcastle looked hot in our last RPR when he jumped back into the top 10. As it turns out, he was just getting going. The Baltimore slugger has produced a .352/.410/.681 line with nine homers in 24 games in June alone, having overcome a particularly slow April and May in which he went deep only five times. As mentioned above, his 14 homers are second-best among all rookies, as are his 128 total bases through 73 games. Mountcastle doesn’t offer much with the glove, so a lot of his value needs to come from the bat. That bat is certainly trending in a promising direction.

10. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros (graduated from Top 30)
Previous RPR: 8
Garcia slips back two spots, but that says much more about Clase and Mountcastle than the Houston hurler. In fact, the right-hander has been as good as ever of late, giving up only three earned runs while fanning 13 over 13 innings in his two starts combined since the last RPR. Like so many others on this list, Garcia has been consistent on the mound throughout the season. He has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of his 15 appearances (13 starts) for the AL West leaders. His 2.83 ERA trails only Rogers’ 2.08 among qualified rookie starters, while his 85 strikeouts rank fourth among all rookie pitchers and his 1.5 fWAR fourth among the same group. Garcia is four-seam heavy, throwing the pitch 47.7 percent of the time, but his offspeed pitches are where he keeps hitters off-balance. His cutter, slider and curve all have whiff rates above 44 percent.

Dropped out: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Others receiving votes: Chisholm, Bobby Dalbec