Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, Opening Day Edition

The Starting Pitcher Power Rankings are back for a new season, and for this first edition of 2024, we are focusing on Opening Day starters.

It’s a stacked group, albeit one missing some big names, including reigning Cy Young Award winners Gerrit Cole (recovering from an elbow injury) and Blake Snell (ramping up after signing with the Giants on March 19.)

Still, our MLB.com voting panel faced a tough task in squeezing 30 talented pitchers into a list of 10, while balancing career track record, 2023 results and 2024 outlook. That was sure to cause some glaring omissions -- and we’re sure you’ll let us hear about those -- but this top 10 should still have you excited for Thursday’s season-opening festivities.

Here is the first Starting Pitcher Power Rankings of 2024 (Opening Day Edition). Each pitcher is listed with his Opening Day opponent (all times ET).

1. Spencer Strider, Braves
3:05 p.m. at PHI (postponed, moved to Friday)

It’s scary to think that Strider might only be getting better, considering he just led the Majors with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts. But the 25-year-old put together a brilliant spring that could foreshadow a masterful 2024, successfully incorporating a curveball into his already-successful fastball-slider pairing. Strider is on the brink of becoming the fastest pitcher in history (by innings) to reach 500 career strikeouts.

2. Corbin Burnes, Orioles
3:05 p.m. vs. LAA

What a huge year this is for Burnes. The 29-year-old, acquired by the Orioles from the Brewers this offseason, will be counted on to lead an injury-scarred rotation for a team with serious championship aspirations. As if coming to town as the “missing piece” wasn’t enough, Burnes also has a chance to set himself up for a massive haul when he reaches free agency this coming winter.

3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
3:05 p.m. vs. ATL (postponed, moved to Friday)

There’s a reason the Phillies recently committed to paying Wheeler an average of $42 million per year at ages 35-37. Going by FanGraphs’ version of WAR, Wheeler is a close second to Cole among all pitchers since 2018, and he is showing no signs of slowing down as he enters his mid-30s.

4. Pablo López, Twins
4:10 p.m. at KC

López showed plenty of promise and enjoyed stretches of success in five seasons with the Marlins, but he never quite put it all together before being traded to the Twins. With Minnesota, López stayed healthy, added an effective sweeper to his pitch mix and finally emerged as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, snagging his first All-Star nod and some AL Cy Young consideration in 2023. With Sonny Gray departing for St. Louis, López is now the guy in the Twin Cities.

5. Zac Gallen, D-backs
10:10 p.m. vs. COL

Gallen solidified his ace status during a brilliant season that saw him finish third in the NL Cy Young Award race while pushing Arizona into October. The big question now might be how the righty holds up after shouldering 243 2/3 innings last year, including the D-backs’ run to the World Series. That combined total was 24 innings higher than anyone else’s.

6. Luis Castillo, Mariners
10:10 p.m. vs. BOS

It’s always fascinating to watch a successful pitcher reinvent himself, and that’s what Castillo has done. The righty made his name with his changeup early in his career. Every season from 2017-21, that was his No. 1 strikeout pitch, especially in 2019, when he racked up 155 K’s with it. Over the past two seasons, though, his changeup usage has plummeted, while his four-seamer usage has skyrocketed. In 2023, Castillo notched 105 K’s on four-seamers and just 35 on changeups -- and to great effect.

7. Logan Webb, Giants
4:10 p.m. at SD

Snell comes to San Francisco with two Cy Young Awards, but Webb is still the most reliable pitcher in this rotation. At a time when starters’ workloads continue to decline, Webb pumped out an MLB-high 216 innings in 2023 -- leading the Giants by a margin of 64 2/3. The quality was nearly as strong as the quantity: Webb topped the NL with a 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and was the NL Cy Young runner-up.

8. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
4:10 p.m. at CWS

Back in January, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello detailed why Skubal is a pitcher to watch in 2024, following the lefty’s eye-popping performance in the second half of last season after he returned from flexor tendon surgery. Skubal backed up that hype this spring, too. Some might find this rank on the aggressive side for a pitcher with such a minimal big league track record, but it’s clear that the ability and potential are there.

9. Framber Valdez, Astros
4:10 p.m. vs. NYY

On the whole, last season was another success for Valdez, who for the second year in a row snagged an All-Star selection and finished with around 200 innings and 200 strikeouts. With that said, there were struggles in the second half (4.66 ERA) and in the postseason (0-3, 9.00 ERA), which perhaps gave our panel some pause. Still, when he’s right, Valdez’s sinker-curveball combo can be devastating.

10. Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers
4:10 p.m. vs. STL

The only pitcher in the top 10 who already made his 2024 debut, Glasnow was solid if unspectacular in Game 1 of the Seoul Series against the Padres last Wednesday (5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K). The Southern California native will likely be much more comfortable in the home opener at Dodger Stadium. Health has long been the only thing holding back the 6-foot-8 righty, and the sky is the limit if he can stay on the mound consistently.

Others receiving votes: Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers), Cole Ragans (Royals), Justin Steele (Cubs), Freddy Peralta (Brewers), Zach Eflin (Rays), Jesús Luzardo (Marlins)

Voters: David Adler, Scott Chiusano, Doug Gausepohl, Thomas Harrigan, Bryan Horowitz, Brent Maguire, Whitney McIntosh, Ricardo Montes de Oca, Arturo Pardavila, Manny Randhawa, Andrew Simon, Zac Vierra