Free Agent Matrix: Which teams will land Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon?

Now that the free agent period is underway, our friends at Cespedes Family BBQ are here to help us predict madness of player movement. They were kind enough to create helpful cheat sheets that can aid us in figuring out where the big names might call home for the 2017 season. Today's players: Kenley Jansen, Mark Melancon and Aroldis Chapman.  
The 2016 postseason taught us two things:
From BrittonGate, to Kenley Jansen's 3,000-pitch outing, against the Nats, to Aroldis Meltdown 2K16, to skinny baseballing cyborg Andrew Miller , it's clear that having a shutdown pen goes a long way toward navigating the playoffs.
Sure, there are some differences between the three top-line free agent relief pitchers: Mark Melancon certainly doesn't have the raw stuff that Jansen and Chapman possess, and the strikeout numbers back that argument up. Plus, Melancon is two years older. But in terms of run prevention, those three guys have been dominant to a strikingly similar degree.

Here's how they've each performed since the start of the 2013 season:
Jansen: 263 IP, 2.19 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 155 saves
Chapman: 242 IP, 1.93 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 143 saves
Melancon: 290 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.914 WHIP, 147 saves
Melancon will probably get a slightly shorter deal and a bit less money, but for the sake of simplicity, we're going to create a megabeast reliever called "MarKenRoldis MelJanMan" and analyze the market for Mr. MelJanMan accordingly.
Deal with it.

Coming at you like a dark horse:
These teams aren't the front-runners, but would make a lot of sense to go after MelJanMan:
BOS: Boston's payroll makes them perpetual players in the luxury aisle of the free-agent market. However, they already have a dynamite back-end arm in Craig Kimbrel. But, an early exit in the 2016 ALDS at the merciless hands of Miller's Tribe might make Boston more inclined to beef up their pen even further. Also, as weird as it would be to see Jansen or Chapman in a Red Sox jersey, we said the same thing about Kimbrel. We all lived to tell the tale.

ARI: Last year's win-now offseason didn't go quite as planned. But, with a new front office and the same impressive core, the D-backs clearly still want to compete sooner rather than later. And on a roster filled with several elite position players and a herd of promising young arms behind Zach Greinke, the bullpen is by far their biggest weakness.
DET: The Tigers don't have all that much in the bullpen beyond K-Rod (who's getting older), but this feels like more of a landing spot for a Joe Blanton-type. (That's a compliment now).

LAA: The Angels already announced that Huston Streetwill have to compete for the job in Spring Training. What better way to light a fire under the veteran than signing both Chapman and Jansen?
CWS: The South Siders' bullpen was underwhelming in 2016, but this doesn't seem like much of a fit unless they want Jansen to come play catcher. If anything, David Robertson's relative struggles since arriving in Chicago may deter them from spending big on another reliever.
PHI: Héctor Neris was quietly one of the best non-closer relievers in the National League, posting a 2.58 ERA while striking out an impressive 11.43 per 9 innings. Unfortunately, Jeanmar Gómez was the shakiest closer in all of baseball - he had the highest ERA among relievers with 30-plus saves by more than a full run. So, it's a bit of a mixed bag for the Phillies' pen, but they are probably still a few years off from spending mad dough on a dominant closer.

Closer incoming (The favorites):
Five teams. Three closers. Who's gonna come up empty-handed?
NYY: The Yankees already have a powerful, mountainesque reliever in Dellin Betances, who feels ready to take on the closer role. But it's been reported that the Yankees want to either bring Chapman back or bring Jansen in to at least partially restore the multi-headed relief beast they wielded at the start of the 2016 season. It would seem they have other more pressing positional needs to address, but this is a Yankees team that did not spend on a single big-league free agent a year ago and may be poised to bulk up their roster in more ways than one.

CHC: The Cubs may not be as desperate as the other teams in this group, because the rest of their bullpen is already in decent shape. Héctor Rondón has proved capable of the closer role, and young guys like Carl Edwards Jr. are ready to step up as well. The Cubs were the best team in baseball before they acquired Chapman, and it's a good bet they'll be the best team in baseball next year even if they lose him. That being said, it seems like navigating the choppy waters of the playoffs without a shutdown reliever (or two) is a thing of the past.
LAD: There is much debate surrounding which of the Dodgers' three premier free agents is most important for the team to bring back long-term -- Jansen, third baseman Justin Turner or ageless wonder Rich Hill. But this is a team that has spent over $1 billion on player contracts since the start of 2013 -- what's another $100-plus million to bring back at least two of the three departing free agents? Assuming Clayton Kershaw starting every three days and closing during his off-days isn't the long-term plan, Jansen would seem like the most important free agent to retain.

WAS: A few great months of Melancon only got the Nationals as far as the Fightin' Kershaws and Kenleys were willing to let them go. Now, Washington enters the offseason with a decent sized hole at the back of the bullpen. They have a ton of young guys who you could envision in the 9th inning -- top prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López may even make some sense if they're big-league ready with no spot in the rotation. But, as the countdown to pay Bryce Harper looms large, the Nats seem more likely to opt for a known commodity.

SFG: Even-year magic couldn't survive 2016, and the Giants' bullpen definitely shoulders some of that blame. The team was three outs away from pushing the Cubs to a Game 5 in the NLDS until its bullpen completely imploded and the Cubs snuck out of San Francisco with a series victory. With Santiago Casilla tragically forgetting how to throw baseballs, someone needs to step up and fill the closer role. Is it Sergio Romo and his steel-wool beard? Could it be Hunter Strickland (he does throw 100 miles per hour, and that is useful for a pitcher)? Or do the Giants shell out some dough to bring in Jansen, Chapman or Melancon? Only time will tell.
Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman are the founders of Cespedes Family BBQ. You can follow them on Twitter at @CespedesBBQ.