What's different for Rogers in the 6th inning?

Left-hander starts solid vs. Braves, but still is yet to make it past 5 2/3 frames this season

April 24th, 2024

ATLANTA -- It was a pitchers’ duel for five innings of the Marlins’ 5-0 loss to the Braves at Truist Park on Tuesday night.

While Atlanta ace Max Fried would go on to throw a ‘Maddux’, Miami starter would stumble in the sixth for the third straight start. By the time he was chased, the Marlins were down by five.

“That's what makes this game fun,” said Rogers, who was tagged for five runs (three earned) over 5 2/3 innings. “[Fried] did really well today. That's why he's one of the best. [The] fact that I can go out there and compete with him and get into six innings with, up to that point, only two runs kind of shows a lot with my preparation. But at the end of the day, we lost this game. I take that to heart, and [I’ve] still got a lot of work to do.”

This time around, a three-run sixth inning started with an Austin Riley single and a Matt Olson flyout. Marcell Ozuna singled to center to put runners on the corners for Travis d'Arnaud, who sent a sacrifice fly to right field. On the play, Riley beat Avisaíl García's throw home to extend the Braves’ lead to 3-0.

Adam Duvall then ambushed Rogers’ first-pitch slider that was meant to go backdoor for a two-run homer to left field. It snapped the left-hander’s MLB-best stretch of 117 batters faced this season without giving up a homer.

When Rogers permitted a single to Michael Harris II on his 16th pitch of the inning, manager Skip Schumaker pulled him at 84 total pitches (57 strikes). Rogers hasn’t been able to complete the sixth inning since April 14, 2023 against the D-backs, which was his second-to-last start of a lost season due to a left biceps strain and a right lat strain.

“I don't think he was tired,” Schumaker said. “Maybe his [velocity] was dropping a little bit, but for the most part, I thought he was fine. It wasn't like he was at that 100-pitch mark or anything. He was in the 70s, and with the flyout to d'Arnaud, I was going to give him Duvall -- I had [Anthony] Bender ready but thought that [Rogers] earned Duvall. Duvall [had] a couple groundouts before that, and so I thought he deserved him with Harris behind him. They both got hits, so it was obviously the wrong move by me. But I thought he was fine, efficient, a lot of ground balls. We just couldn't cover him on the offensive side.”

Despite the result, Rogers said it was huge for his confidence that Schumaker trusted him to get out of that situation. Had Rogers done so, perhaps he could have had a shot at the seventh inning.

Keeping in mind small sample sizes, including Tuesday, Rogers’ sixth-inning average velocity (91.6 mph) isn’t significantly different from the fourth (91.8 mph) or fifth (91.5 mph) this season. His 65.2 percent strike rate on fastballs in the sixth is his lowest.

Two starts ago in the sixth inning, Atlanta chased Rogers when Olson led off with a double and Ozuna walked. Reliever George Soriano entered the game and recorded the next three outs before any damage could be done.

Are the Braves making adjustments? Is it something Rogers isn’t doing?

“I think it's a little bit of both,” Rogers said. “I think I just need to dial in a little bit better with my location. The margin of error goes down a little bit the deeper you get into games, and [I’ve] just got to locate better and mix a little bit better as well.”

Rogers, who was limited to 18 innings over four starts in 2023, already has topped those numbers (26 1/3 innings in five starts) in ‘24. He is showing that he can consistently keep the club in ballgames despite Miami scoring one run or fewer in four of his five outings. The next hurdle to overcome is the sixth inning.

“Everything's feeling really good,” Rogers said. “The fact that I've already surpassed last year just shows a testament to how long I was out. And the fact that I'm getting these results is a good thing. Of course, not everything's going to go my way -- and it's not always going to -- but the fact that I'm executing my process, I'm doing a really good job executing pitches, and once I finally get over that last little hump, I'll really be rolling.”