How would a lineup of MLB sons fare?

How would a lineup of MLB sons fare?

Let's put this current crop of second-generation stars to the test

April 20th, 2024

When No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday made his Major League debut with the Orioles on April 10, his father was in the stands at Fenway Park.

Of course, it’s hardly unusual for proud parents to be on hand for their child’s big moment. But Matt Holliday is no ordinary parent, having made seven All-Star teams and bashed 316 home runs over his own 15-year Major League career.

While MLB history has plenty of examples of great father-son duos -- Barry Bonds and Ken Griffey Jr. are two all-time greats who were contemporaries in the 1990s and 2000s -- it does feel as though Holliday is representative of a golden age of second-generation players that has emerged in recent years.

Clearly, some of the biggest stars in the game today are also the sons of former big leaguers. But just how good are they? We decided to put that question to the test by forming a team of MLB sons.

There was one problem, though: The overwhelming majority of them are position players. Even with the Rangers’ Jack Leiter (son of Al) making his MLB debut on Thursday, and joining his cousin Mark Leiter Jr. in The Show, there aren’t nearly enough second-generation players available to take the mound.

So, let’s focus on position players. Conveniently, there are 22 that meet the following criteria:

  • At least one game of MLB experience
  • Active in 2024 and under contract with an MLB organization

That’s roughly the number of position players that an average team might use over a full season. (The 2023 Dodgers, to name just one example, used exactly 22.) Therefore, we could not only build an All-Son starting lineup, but actually construct a legitimate (half of a) roster -- and then project how it might stack up against actual MLB squads.

Here are the results:

The starting lineup

  1. , SS, Royals (son of Bobby)
  2. , CF, Cubs (son of Clay)
  3. , RF, Padres (son of Fernando)
  4. , 1B, Blue Jays (son of Vladimir)
  5. , LF, D-backs (son of Stu)
  6. , DH, Blue Jays (son of Dante)
  7. , C, Blue Jays (son of Gary)
  8. , 3B, Pirates (son of Charlie)
  9. , 2B, Orioles (son of Matt)

One certainly could quibble with the exact order here, but we prioritized mixing up the right- and left-handed bats. No matter how you slice it, though, it’s an impressive-looking group, especially with Witt emerging as a full-fledged superstar and Tatis looking like he’s back in something resembling peak form after a couple of difficult years. (It will look a lot better if and when Holliday busts out of his career-opening slump.) Bellinger, Hayes, Tatis and Witt will help make up for some defensive questions at other spots on the field.

As one might expect from this sort of exercise, positions did not line up perfectly. The most significant example comes at catcher, where we took the liberty of squeezing in Varsho, who was drafted as a catcher, spent most of his time in the Minors there and logged 82 big league games behind the plate. However, Varsho has not caught a game since moving full-time to the outfield in July 2022 and seems unlikely to do so again outside of an emergency situation. Since this is all for fun, though, we’re having him don the gear.

Meanwhile, the heavy prevalence of MLB sons playing shortstop -- even with Tatis shifting to right field and Holliday debuting at second base -- means that Bichette (who has yet to play anywhere else on the field in MLB) is perhaps unfairly relegated to DH duty.

The bench

Most teams go with a short bench these days, and this starting lineup doesn’t need a ton of support, but we’ll list five players here anyways. Soderstrom was a top-50 prospect but struggled mightily in a 45-game debut at age 21 last season and is currently back at Triple-A for the A’s. Peña is an overqualified backup here due to the aforementioned shortstop depth, and the same could be said of Turang, who is batting over .300 and leading the Majors in steals this year. Biggio provides positional versatility, and Sheets is a big bat off to a hot start this year after a rough 2023 campaign.

The Minor League depth

Every team needs depth to navigate the rigors of 162 games, and these eight players will provide that while providing cover at every position on the field. All eight have reached the Majors at some point and remain active, although five of them have yet to see MLB action this season.

The exceptions are García, Gordon and Nevin, who all have swung the bat pretty well in the early going this season as they seek to carve out established roles with their respective clubs.

The method

OK, so this team -- or, to be more precise, this group of position players -- clearly looks strong on paper. But while there is no way to know how it would actually perform if suddenly dropped into MLB in 2024, we can at least work with some data to get an idea of the answer.

To do that, we first had to determine a breakdown of playing time. Instead of simply maxing out plate appearances for the best players on this roster, we attempted to come up with something realistic. That means some players seeing time at multiple spots and backups getting chances to play. It also means that, with the exception of Varsho, we made an effort not to put players at positions they could be reasonably expected to play in real life.

So as not to overemphasize the brilliance of the top players on this roster, we doled out the playing time such that nobody’s plate appearances exceeded what they are actually slated to receive in 2024, per Steamer projections available at FanGraphs. The top stars (such as Guerrero, Tatis and Witt) basically matched that projected PA total, while backups (such as Peña and Biggio) ended up with less than half that, and those on the fringes of the roster even less.

Once the playing time was settled, the next step was to combine that with those players’ expected levels of performance, once again per Steamer and with the assistance of MLB.com senior data architect Tom Tango. While these numbers may not fully account for factors such as position changes (especially Varsho’s), it should get us in the right ballpark, so to speak.

The results

As you would expect, the top of this team is strong, led by Tatis, Witt, Bichette and Guerrero, who would combine for roughly 16 projected WAR. Bellinger, Hayes, Holliday and Varsho form an excellent second tier, with some solid, if uneven, depth behind them. Here is how Team Sons stacks up overall against the top projected MLB position player units this season.

Most projected position player WAR, 2024, per FanGraphs

  1. Braves 28.2
  2. Team Sons 27.3
  3. Yankees 26.9
  4. Astros 26.1
  5. Dodgers 25.7

That more or less matches the eye test. This is obviously a stellar group that would be on par with some of the best in the game, if not necessarily head and shoulders above MLB’s most elite squads.

And keep in mind: Unlike, say, the Braves, Team Sons was not actually assembled as a real team would be, so it couldn’t trade from its wealth of shortstops to plug a hole at catcher or bolster its outfield.

Even with that limitation, though, it’s fair to say that our current crop of second-generation big leaguers could hit, run and field with the best clubs the league has to offer. Now it just needs some more pitching.