AL Central race highlights series to watch this week

May 13th, 2024

A year after the 87-75 Twins were the only 80-win team in their division, the AL Central race was projected to be a dull one in 2024. More than a month into the season, that’s been anything but the case. While the White Sox have struggled, the remainder of the division has blown past expectations, as the AL Central is the only division with three teams that have at least 24 wins thus far.

All three of those teams -- the Royals, Twins and Guardians -- will be in action in high-profile series this week, including two of them playing each other. This group highlights our series to watch for the week of May 13.

Cubs (24-17) at Braves (24-13)
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)

Head to head: These teams have not faced off yet in 2024. Last season, the Braves went 4-2 against the Cubs, including a 3-0 record at home.

Storyline: How real are the Cubs? The Braves, who have won six consecutive division titles, are simply doing what they’ve been accustomed to doing. But for the Cubs, who haven’t made the postseason since the 16-team playoff during the shortened 2020 season, this surge to relevance has been a refreshing change of pace, led by Shota Imanaga and a stellar starting rotation.

Watch out for: . Suzuki missed roughly four weeks with an oblique strain, but just made his return to the lineup on May 11. The 29-year-old had an .893 OPS prior to his IL stint, and he should provide an extra spark to a lineup that just lost shortstop (and former Brave) Dansby Swanson to the IL.

Mariners (22-19) at Royals (25-17)
3 games (Monday-Wednesday)

Head to head: These teams have not played each other this season. In 2023, the Mariners went 6-1 against the Royals, including 3-1 in a four-game set in Kansas City in August.

Storyline: Is the Royals’ turnaround sustainable? According to the Elias Sports Bureau, in MLB’s divisional era (since 1969), only five teams have won a division the year after finishing at least 30 games out of first place, with the 2015 Rangers being the most recent instance. Kansas City finished 31 games behind the Twins a year ago, but the Royals are neck-and-neck with Minnesota and Cleveland this season.

Watch out for: . Rojas was far from Seattle’s biggest name on offense entering the season, holding a career .698 in his first five seasons. But thus far, he’s undoubtedly been the Mariners’ top hitter, leading the team (min. 100 PA) with a .347/.411/.515 batting line, all of which are career highs.

Reds (17-23) at Dodgers (27-15)
4 games (Thursday-Sunday)

Head to head: These teams have not played each other in 2024. Last season, the Dodgers went 2-4 against the Reds, their worst record against any opponent with at least four games played.

Storyline: The Dodgers machine rolls on. Through April 20, the Dodgers were 12-11, and it looked like perhaps there was a crack in the armor of the franchise that became the first to win 100 games in four straight full seasons. But since then, Los Angeles is 15-4, reminding MLB just how dominant the team tends to be.

Watch out for: . There’s never a time where it’s not worth paying attention to MLB’s walking highlight reel, but this season has been particularly impressive thus far. And on top of that, he has an impressive history against the Dodgers, going 10-for-25 with two homers and a .400/.464/.880 batting line in six matchups last year.

Nationals (19-20) at Phillies (28-13)
3 games (Friday-Sunday)

Head to head: These teams have played one series this season, with the Phillies taking two of three on the road. Last season, Philadelphia went 7-6 against Washington.

Storyline: The Phillies’ year-round motivation. In both 2022 and 2023, Philadelphia had eerily similar season storylines, struggling to a sub-.500 record through the first two months before storming into a Wild Card berth and making deep playoff runs. This season, it appears that the Phillies aren’t waiting until June to flip the switch, jumping out to MLB’s best record. The Nationals will provide a good test, though, as they’ve already won or split series against contenders including the Dodgers, Astros, Blue Jays and Orioles.

Watch out for: . Harper has been a Nationals destroyer since switching sides in this matchup before the 2019 season. He has a .310/.448/.552 batting line in 72 games against Washington, and his 78 hits and 139 total bases are both second-most against the Nationals since 2019, behind Pete Alonso.

Twins (24-16) at Guardians (25-16)
3 games (Friday-Sunday)

Head to head: The Guardians are 2-0 against the Twins this season, having swept a two-game set in Minnesota. Last year, the Guardians went 7-6 against the Twins.

Storyline: The battle for the AL Central is on. As stated in the introduction of this article, these are two of the three teams that are in a tight battle at the top of the division. These two teams have combined for seven of the past eight AL Central titles (all but the White Sox’s in 2021), meaning they have no shortage of history playing high-leverage games against one another.

Watch out for: . Julien and Ryan Jeffers have provided a jolt of young talent to the Twins offense, supplementing more established names like Max Kepler and Carlos Correa. Julien’s plate discipline has stood out this season, as he ranks in the 99th percentile of MLB in chase rate.